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As Thanksgiving approaches next week, many Americans are not only preparing for their holiday celebrations but also eagerly anticipating the upcoming Black Friday and Cyber Monday sales. CivicScience predicted last month that Thanksgiving weekend sales, particularly Black Friday, may draw an even larger turnout this year. New data reveal that a significant portion of consumers have already taken advantage of early Black Friday deals (22%) or haven’t yet but plan to (35%).1

So, what’s in store for the upcoming savings events? Here’s what CivicScience data says:

Brands should prepare for a higher Black Friday and Cyber Monday turnout this year.

The National Retail Federation is predicting a record-breaking Thanksgiving weekend for sales, with an estimated 183.4 million people shopping. New CivicScience data also show that intent to shop over Thanksgiving weekend increased this year. Currently, 54% of Americans say they plan to shop over the holiday weekend, up from 46% in 2023. 

Black Friday is poised to generate the most interest this year, followed by Cyber Monday. Thirty-four percent of Americans plan to shop on Black Friday (up from 25% in 2023), and 26% are shopping on Cyber Monday (up from 22% in 2023). This comes as Small Business Saturday is also seeing a bump in interest.

This year’s growing interest in Black Friday and Cyber Monday underscores a broader trend: 42% of holiday shoppers are actively searching for ‘deals and promotions’ – a five-point increase since September.

Answer our Poll: Do you plan to do any holiday shopping in any stores on Black Friday or online on Cyber Monday this year?

Gift-buying is still a priority for the majority of Black Friday Shoppers, but purchasing non-gifts is up.

For some, Black Friday is the unofficial event for buying holiday gifts. While 60% of shoppers will check off ‘all’ or ‘most’ of their items off their holiday gift list, this figure is down six percentage points from 2023. Instead, there’s a four percentage point increase among those buying non-gifts. 

Still, Buy Now, Pay Later services could be a popular move among Black Friday gift buyers. CivicScience data show that those planning to do ‘all’ or ‘most’ of their holiday shopping are over three times as likely to be using BNPLs ‘more’ this year than those mostly buying non-gifts.

The election has caused a spike in the number of Republicans shopping on Black Friday. 

CivicScience data has revealed significant shifts in consumer behavior post-Election Day. One notable shift is the percentage of Republicans shopping on Black Friday this year. Ahead of Election Day, Democrats led Black Friday shopping at 55%, whereas far fewer Republicans planned to shop (45%). This flipped dramatically in the immediate aftermath of the election as the percentage of Republicans planning to shop on Black Friday jumped to 64%. That said, though, the election outcome isn’t deterring Democrats from shopping on Black Friday. 

Join the Conversation: Do you tend to shop for deals on Black Friday or Cyber Monday?

Thanksgiving weekend sales are looking bright for retailers this year, with CivicScience data suggesting the potential for increased participation in Black Friday and Cyber Monday shopping. Many will use this time to cross items off their holiday lists, yet there’s an increase in the percentage of buying mostly non-gifts. Lastly, the election is set to disrupt Thanksgiving shopping plans, especially among Republicans, who likely have a boosted optimism going into the holiday season. 

Attitudes change before behaviors do. CivicScience helps clients stay ahead of the curve by uncovering the hidden consumer trends that lead to winning market strategies.

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