The HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (“ESI”) is a “living” index that measures U.S. adults’ expectations for the economy going forward, as well as their feelings about current conditions for major purchases. The primary goal of the Index is to accurately measure movements in overall national economic sentiment and to provide a more sophisticated alternative to existing economic sentiment indices. Unlike other prominent indices that release consumer sentiment estimates infrequently, the HPS-CivicScience Index is updated in real-time as responses are collected continuously every hour, every day. Large-scale cross-tabulation of survey responses and consumer attributes enable more granular analyses than are currently possible through prevailing measures.
Excerpt From the Latest Reading:
Economic sentiment ended its month-long slump, rising 1.3 points to 50.6 over the past two weeks, according to the HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (ESI). Confidence in the job market boosted overall confidence as it continued its meteoric rise, increasing 4.2 points to 54.9—the highest level in the ESI’s history.
With over half of the U.S. population having received at least one vaccine shot, jobless claims reaching a pandemic low of only 547,000 last Thursday, and COVID-19 infection rates holding steady, consumers displayed a rising level of confidence over the past two weeks. In addition to record-setting job confidence, faith in the overall economy rose 2.2 points to 53.3. The other indicators were more mixed:
– Confidence in personal finances rose 3.6 points to 58.8, its second highest reading during the pandemic.
– Confidence in the tight housing market continued to drop, falling 2.4 points to 41.5, its lowest level in over a year.
– Consumers’ confidence in making a major purchase fell slightly from its previous six-month high, declining one point to 44.5.