We’re in Ann Arbor again.
It’s funny that I spent my entire life living four hours from such a cool town and never once set foot here until Maddie started school. A dozen or so round-trips later and a couple more to go, I wonder if I’ll ever come back after she graduates. I hope so.
This trip is for a show, her biggest role yet in a university production. The faculty are intentional in putting underclassmen in roles that challenge them in the weaker areas of their triple-threat repertoire. It makes the quality of the performances even more impressive, given few of the students are playing to their strengths. Seniors, like Maddie, finally get to show off their chops.
Once this two-weekend run is over, she starts rehearsals for a paid gig – balancing classes, while playing Anna in a 6-week run of Frozen at the Dexter Theater. Sadly, for the first but likely not last time, she won’t be home for Thanksgiving. We’ll see her for three days over Christmas break. Noelle is especially bitter about it.
And so it begins.
The spring semester is all about “Showcase,” a pressure-packed, one-song audition all the graduating seniors perform for a theater full of top Broadway agents. Score an elite one, and the uphill climb is significantly less steep.
Meanwhile, Tara is helping with apartment recon in New York, hoping to find something affordable, but bigger than a shoebox. Talk about an uphill climb.
And then there’s the hardest part of all.
Her name.
To enter the Broadway ranks, you’re required to join “Equity,” the industry’s trade union. At that point, your name is set in stone. It’s a decision Maddie put off as long as possible, if only because she dreaded it.
The consensus of her teachers, industry folks, and other mentors is mostly universal: While her birth name would certainly be memorable, the potential risks in an insanely competitive career aren’t worth it. What if Disney nixes her from a role of a lifetime, simply because they don’t want “Dick” emblazoned on the theater marquee?
We’re all twisting our brains for Dick-less ideas. Something with family ties or personal meaning would be ideal. But it needs to be unique. It needs to alliterate well. Naming anything is hard – a product, a band, even a pet. Renaming yourself is next level.
From Maddie’s first big-stage show when she was 7, each step in this journey has felt more uncharted than the last. Tara and I were never musical theater people. We learned a lot, helped where we could, but otherwise trusted the experts we met along the way.
Soon, she’ll be on her own – with an entirely new name.
Crazy.
Here’s what we’re seeing:
Good news – consumer confidence sucks slightly less. Our Economic Sentiment Index improved by the tiniest margins this week, which likely had nothing whatsoever to do with the government shutdown. Confidence in the job market recovered from its dismal low point, while the long-term outlook for the overall U.S. economy also ticked upward. On the flipside, confidence in personal finances and the housing market moved downward. The net gain is better than the alternative – but we’re still far below where we were this time last year.
People are psyched about Halloween this year. Another sign of our collective pursuit of diversions from politics, government dysfunction, and the news, enthusiasm for the coming Halloween celebration is up appreciably over 2024. Per usual, younger adults are fired up the most. In a preview of a trend we expect to color the bigger upcoming holidays, we see a high correlation between strained emotional well-being and higher Halloween spending intent. It doesn’t mean celebrators aren’t looking to stretch their cash. The number of costumes and decorations shoppers are buying at discount and dollar stores is up 22% from last year.
Brand loyalty in the clothing industry is alive and well. We’ve been working on a paper on brand loyalty that I can’t wait to publish – the findings are stunning for those of us who geek out about this stuff. In our 3 Things to Know this week, we highlighted brand loyalty in apparel, finding significant, if intuitive, differences by generation. We also looked at a litany of consumer industries, where people are feeling the most overwhelmed by the deluge of related ads, products, and news (spoiler: healthcare & pharma is the worst). Finally, we explored the variety of reasons higher-income consumers often shop “below their means.”
Home goods were the hot item going into Amazon Prime Big Deal Days. I’m kicking myself because I spoke at the International Housewares Association conference in Chicago the day after we released this – and I didn’t know about it. As always, tech and electronics products had the highest level of interest going into Amazon’s promotional event this week, but home goods, décor, kitchen items, and appliances showed the biggest jump compared to last year. Overall, intent to participate in the event was on par with 2024 – and participation across age and income groups was remarkably balanced. Higher-income consumers were more likely to make impulse buys.
Of all the headwinds blowing against the beer industry right now, cost isn’t one of them. There’s no shortage of bad news for beer and alcohol companies – GLP1s, cannabis, disinterested young people, and health trends are all dragging on the category. Still, we took a deeper look at today’s beer drinker this week, finding a high propensity among these consumers to value low-calorie options and try new things. Notably, while price-consciousness is weighing on just about every other industry we study, beer drinkers are overwhelmingly brand-centric. Only 15% prioritize price over brand…experience tells me these are mostly guys in college fraternities.
More awesomeness this week:
- Here’s everything you need to know about jewelry buyers this holiday season;
- The guest this week on our Dumbest Guy in the Room podcast was Michael Costello, the CEO of GNC. We talked about the explosion of vitamin and supplement usage among Gen Z, how GNC is leaning hard into the GLP1 craze, the benefits of personalization in nutrition, vintage cars, competitive eating, and lots more. Listen here.
The most popular questions this week:
Have you noticed an increase in prices at your favorite local restaurants?
How important is spirituality to you?
Fusion cuisine: overrated, underrated, or properly rated?
How optimistic are you about the future of small businesses in the US?
Answer Key: Yes, all of them; If religion counts, then very important; Pez dispensers, trinkets from Steelers bars around the country/world, and golf flags; Underrated; If they can find any workers, very optimistic.
Hoping you’re well.
JD
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