The Microsoft-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index powered by HPS (“ESI”) is a “living” index that measures U.S. adults’ expectations for the economy going forward, as well as their feelings about current conditions for major purchases. The primary goal of the Index is to accurately measure movements in overall national economic sentiment and to provide a more sophisticated alternative to existing economic sentiment indices. Unlike other prominent indices that release consumer sentiment estimates infrequently, the Microsoft-CivicScience Index is updated in real-time as responses are collected continuously every hour, every day. Large-scale cross-tabulation of survey responses and consumer attributes enable more granular analyses than are currently possible through prevailing measures.
Excerpt From the Latest Reading:
Consumer confidence increased slightly over the past two weeks, according to the HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (ESI). After the ESI fell by 0.4 points during the last reading, consumer confidence rose by 0.2 points to 50.3 over the past two weeks, buoyed by a strong rebound in confidence in the broader U.S. economy. The reading remains below its two-month high of 50.5 on October 1.
Three of the ESI’s five indicators decreased during the reading period. Consumer confidence toward the housing market decreased the most, falling by 1.9 points to 51.3. Sentiment toward making a major purchase and the labor market fell by 1.3 and 0.7 points, respectively. Meanwhile, consumer sentiment toward personal finances rose 2.4 points to 64.9. Confidence in the broader U.S. economy also rose by 2.4 points, rebounding from last reading’s sharp decline. The slight increase comes as the United States and Chinese delegations are working on a Phase 1 trade deal, and new data shows the housing market stalled in September.
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