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On Monday night, former President Trump was charged with his fourth indictment and 91st criminal charge, stemming from his efforts to challenge the 2020 election results in Georgia. His third indictment came earlier this month, also in connection to the 2020 election results.

CivicScience conducted numerous polls surrounding the third indictment, finding that nearly half of all U.S. adults with an opinion think former President Trump is guilty of ‘most or all charges,’ and 30% think he’s not guilty of any charges. Separate polling found that nearly one-quarter of adults believe his previous indictment ‘greatly’ increased his chances of getting the GOP nomination.

The latest CivicScience data found that generally speaking, a strong majority of U.S. adults (69%) think pending criminal charges should negatively impact someone’s eligibility for the U.S. presidency – half think it ‘definitely should.’ Registered Democrats are three times as likely as Republicans to say it ‘definitely should’ have a negative impact, but over half of Republicans think it should to at least some extent (51%).

Whether this thinking comes to impact the 2024 primary race remains to be seen. According to the latest poll conducted after his fourth indictment, nearly 1-in-3 with an opinion think it’s ‘very likely’ a candidate other than former President Trump will secure the GOP nomination (and 62% think it’s at least ‘somewhat likely’). 

Three more insights to know about the latest Trump indictments:

  • Registered Democrats are the most likely to think a candidate other than former President Trump will get the 2024 GOP nomination (67% say it’s at least ‘somewhat likely’) – but more than half of Republicans say the same (55%).
  • Democrats are just five percentage points more likely than Republicans to say it’s ‘very likely’ a non-Trump candidate secures the nomination (32% compared to 27%).
  • Adults 55 and older are overwhelmingly more likely than Gen Z adults to think pending criminal charges ‘definitely should’ have a negative impact on someone’s presidential eligibility.

Curious to know how your business might be impacted by the looming 2024 election? Book a meeting today, and unlock a free month of premium content from CivicScience.