Plummeting Confidence In Broader U.S. Economy Drives Decline In Economic Sentiment Index

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The Microsoft News-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (“ESI”), powered by HPS, is a “living” index that measures U.S. adults’ expectations for the economy going forward, as well as their feelings about current conditions for major purchases. The primary goal of the index is to accurately measure movements in overall national economic sentiment and to provide a more sophisticated alternative to existing economic sentiment indices. Large-scale cross-tabulation of survey responses and consumer attributes enable more granular analyses than are currently possible through prevailing measures.

Excerpt From the Latest Reading:

Consumer confidence dropped significantly over the past two weeks, according to the Microsoft News-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (ESI), powered by Hamilton Place Strategies. A 2.8-point decline brought the ESI down to 51.1, its lowest level since March of this year. 

All five of the ESI’s indicators decreased over the past two weeks. Consumer confidence in the broader U.S. economy experienced the largest decline, dropping 5.0 points to 43.4. Sentiment toward making a major purchase and personal finances followed close behind, dropping by 3.8 and 3.6 points, respectively.

Confidence in the labor market dropped by 1.4 points, while sentiment toward the housing market declined by 0.6 points to 52.3.

The decline in consumer confidence comes as 74% of U.S. business economists have grown concerned enough to expect a recession in the U.S. by the end of 2021, with a little over a third predicting a recession next year.

See the full reading here.

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