International travel is daunting, even in the best of circumstances. When fears are heightened enough, will travelers choose to stay home instead of taking a European vacation?
A recent New York Times anecdote claimed that business at some French tourist destinations has slumped by 70%.
When surveyed about their vacation plans to Europe, here’s what US adults expressed:
So, 85% of those surveyed weren’t planning a European vacation in the next year anyway.
The most interesting data comes from the 7% who responded: “No, I was planning a trip and still am.” Those who still plan to travel are less likely to be concerned about national security issues. Also, they are less likely to worry about crime and violence in their communities. This group is also twice as likely to be neither a parent nor a grandparent.
Those who have already canceled or are rethinking their plans are slightly more likely to be men with grandchildren. Over 30% of people who said they’d cancel or reconsider their trip have a household income of over $125K, which might make the financial repercussions of canceling a trip easier.
It seems that those who were planning to travel to Europe in the next year are nearly equally split between those who will still go and those who have already canceled or are rethinking their plans. Given the data, it wouldn’t be surprising to see tourist destinations lost some revenue in the coming months.