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As American tariff and economic policies continue to see-saw, measuring the financial health of the nation is key to understanding the current state of the consumer and predicting how they will react in the months ahead. The CivicScience Consumer Financial Health Index (CFHI) has a pulse on how U.S. consumers expect their personal financial situations to change in the next six months. Here’s what the latest data show:
The ongoing climate of economic uncertainty is keeping the personal outlook of consumer financial health of Americans on a rollercoaster ride of highs and lows. A weekly glance at the CFHI finds April began with a steep decline, dropping the index to its lowest point since June 2022 – likely driven by the “Liberation Day” tariffs. With the administration softening its approach on most countries, the following weeks saw the index rebound by a staggering 4.2 percentage points to round out the month at 62.07. Despite this dramatic rebound, the weekly index still sits well below the 64.7 of the Trump Administration’s first week back in office in January.
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April’s mid-to-late gains weren’t enough to offset the broader downward trend of the index since January. The CFHI has declined by 4.17 points from January to April (64.38 to 60.21). Still, the month-over-month drop between March and April narrowed to just 0.94 points—the smallest decline seen so far this year.
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A deep dive into the individual components of the CFHI reveals a general pattern of leveling off among three of the five components on a month-to-month basis. Americans’ six-month outlook on their income and credit has each largely stabilized after just a 0.05 and 0.09 decline, respectively. While consumer debt outlook’s decline was also held under a percentage point (0.94), Americans have become increasingly willing to use Buy Now, Pay Later services in order to pay for things like food delivery, travel plans, and event tickets.
Conversely, consumer outlooks on saving (-1.29 pp) and investing in particular (-2.23 pp) were the most significant contributors in bringing the CFHI down. While these declines are not as significant as our previous reading, the current state of uncertainty that’s clouding the stock market, paired with a noteworthy percentage of Americans having to dip into their retirement savings to get by, doesn’t bode well.
Use this Data: CivicScience clients leverage real-time insights like these to predict consumer behavior changes, stay ahead of market disruptions, and identify opportunities for growth and retention, even as economic conditions shift rapidly.
While some aspects of consumer financial outlook show temporary signs of stabilization, deeper cracks in saving and investing confidence—and the growing reliance on Buy Now, Pay Later and early retirement withdrawals—signal that Americans may be leaning into short-term fixes amid long-term uncertainty. In this environment, brands that offer perceived value, financial flexibility, or a sense of stability are well positioned to attract consumers rethinking their loyalties and spending habits amid shifting tariff policies.
