Although the Academy Awards likely aren’t gunning for an unmemorable show this year, they’re certainly hoping for no off-script surprises to hog the spotlight. After last year’s show was remembered for Will Smith slapping Chris Rock onstage, the Academy has cast a spotlight on popular nominees like “Top Gun: Maverick,” “Elvis,” and “Avatar: The Way of Water.” But barring a major surprise following its early sweep of every major guild’s top prize, “Everything Everywhere All At Once” is poised to be a big winner. So who will be watching?

According to CivicScience’s latest polling data, 16% of U.S. adults claimed they ‘definitely’ or ‘probably’ will watch the Oscars this year (compared to 15% who claimed the same for the Grammys earlier this year, which netted 12.4 million viewers). This is a slight lag in enthusiasm from the 25% who said they were at least ‘somewhat likely’ to watch the show last year.

CivicScience polled Americans on most of the Best Picture nominees (excluding “Tár,” “Women Talking,” and “Triangle of Sadness”) to see which is the moviegoers’ favorite this year. Excluding those with no opinion, “Top Gun: Maverick” is the runaway top pick among U.S. adults (40%), with box office hits “Elvis” (16%), “Everything Everywhere All At Once” (12%), and “Avatar: The Way of Water” (11%) also pulling in sizable support.

“Everything Everywhere” commands a heftier share among adults aged 25-34 (19%), with “The Banshees of Inisherin” more than doubling its overall support numbers with adults 55+ (21%). Tracking with previous CivicScience data which revealed Gen Z adults as big “Avatar” fans, “The Way of Water” jumps to second place (17% behind “Maverick” at 37%) among adults aged 18-24.

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