After such a positive response to the research we published on the County Executive race in Allegheny County, PA, we decided to delve into an even more-local issue, namely, the pending vote in the City of Pittsburgh on a referendum to introduce a 0.25mil special tax on city residents to support operations and maintenance of the Carnegie Library system. Below are some highlights from the data we collected and analyzed last week among an initial sample of 3,386 registered voters in the City of Pittsburgh. Our final analysis is based on a sample of 506 Pittsburgh residents, who we believe represent the most likely voters in the Nov. 8 election. For data geeks (we love you) and persistent skeptics (give us a chance), you can see the baseline numbers HERE and full cross-tabs HERE.
Ok. So, upon further review, we believe that the current attitude of the electorate indicates that 53% of Pittsburgh voters “Support” the referendum, 34% “Oppose” it, and 13% are “Undecided.” Some of the more interesting components include:
-As expected, registered Democrats support the referendum at a much higher rate (56%) than Republicans (38%). Fortunately for the library supporters, Democrats hold nearly a 6X voter registration edge in the City of Pittsburgh.
-The issue is fairly consistent relative to Gender, with women supporting the initiative (55%) only slightly more than men (51%).
-Support is highest among the youngest voters and oldest voters. Those aged 18-34 support the referendum at a 62% clip while those over 65 support it 57%.
-The lowest level of support is among voters aged 35-54 (45% support), where one could surmise you would find the greatest sensitivity to tax increases of any kind.
-Not surprisingly, support for the referendum rises among voters with more advanced levels of education. Voters with High School-level degrees (or less) support the referendum at a 40% rate, while those with College or Technical degrees (56%) and those with Graduate or PhD credentials (59%) support it much more strongly.
-The largest groups of Undecided voters can be found among women under age 55 (21% Undecided), all voters age 18-34 (19%), African-American voters (19%)
We plan to do another round of analysis one week prior to the election to see how this issue is trending. So stay tuned. Or, please call us to learn more about our data collection and analysis methodology. We love to tell our story. P.S.- This research was conducted by CIVICSCIENCE independently and was not sponsored by any third-party.
