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Last week, Walmart issued a cautious outlook for 2025, projecting slower sales and profit growth. With inflation and potential tariffs weighing on consumer spending, the retailer’s forecast signals broader economic uncertainty in the year ahead.
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New CivicScience data shows that Walmart customers are feeling the strain, with 84% of its favorable consumers cutting back in at least one of the following areas. They’re most likely to cut back on full-service restaurants (45%), followed closely by fast food restaurants (44%) and travel (44%). Conversely, they’re less likely to cut back on grocery stores (29%), beauty/personal care (28%), and gasoline (20%) – however, this still represents a significant share of consumers scaling back. Though they are cutting back across many categories, they are less likely than the Gen Pop to reduce spending on clothing and shoes, presenting an opportunity for the big-box retailer.
Data also shows that just over three-quarters of Walmart’s favorable shoppers are at least ‘somewhat’ concerned about the impact of recent trade policies and tariffs on household expenses, with 39% expressing they are ‘very’ concerned. Compared to shoppers at other major brick-and-mortar retailers, Walmart’s favorable customers are more likely to express strong concerns than customers of Home Depot and Walgreens. However, concern is higher among CVS and Costco consumers, who are more likely than Walmart shoppers to be ‘very’ concerned about the effects of tariffs.
Use this Data: The press, brands, and marketers can use this chart to understand how potential tariff concerns could impact future household spending.
Overall, as the largest U.S. retailer and a key player in budget-conscious shopping, Walmart’s outlook serves as a strong indicator of broader consumer sentiments. If its cautious forecast holds, other retailers may also face a challenging year ahead.
