It’ll all be over soon. 

Hopefully. 

In less than two months, we’ll (probably) know who our next President is going to be. Between now and then, we’ll just have to suffer through a couple of painful debates, a million nauseating ads, our aunts and uncles sharing fake memes on Facebook, and low-grade anxiety over whether the whole thing will end peacefully. 

I can’t predict much beyond that. And believe me, people ask me about it countless times a day. If pressed, I’d bet my extensive Pez collection that Kamala Harris will win the popular vote, not because our data says so, but because a Republican hasn’t done that in forever. Who cares? Why do we even tabulate the popular vote anyway? It’s window-dressing.   

One thing’s for sure. People will spend the next 9 weeks overreacting to polls for no reason. No survey method on the planet can earnestly predict the outcome of this election, given how close it’s likely to be across a few small districts in 5 or 6 states that matter. Sorry, you’ll have to wait for the surprise. There’s no shortcut.

For what it’s worth, I don’t subscribe to all the “end of democracy, blah, blah, fascism, blah, blah communism” catastrophizing you hear from both sides. I have full confidence in our institutions to withstand four years of anybody. Time flies. History repeats itself. Et cetera. 

That’s not to say it isn’t very important, particularly for some more than others. Admittedly, as a financially secure, white, cis Christian with full body autonomy, the stakes aren’t as high for me. A dozen points of capital gains or corporate tax rates could make an appreciable difference – one way or another – but overly stressing about that would be the epitome of privilege. I worry more about the future for my daughters, but I also know they’re smart and resilient enough to handle things in the short term – or fix them in the long term. Gen Z will need to save the world, one way or another. It’s only a matter of how far we keep digging the hole for them.  

So, I’ll be spending the next 60 days watching the worst sport in the world, rooting hard for my team to win. But I’m not moving to Canada if they don’t. I just want it over with. We’re all better off when politics isn’t front of mind, 24/7.    

Also, thank God for the distraction of football season. 

If only you could skip the commercials.

Here’s what we’re seeing: 

Our collective financial health is stable. In the next few weeks, we’ll share some important new findings about our Consumer Financial Health Index and its predictive power. But for now, I’ll just tell you that it improved slightly in August, even while slipping a bit in the back half of the month. The whole thing has been remarkably steady since early July, a stretch of consistency I can’t recall seeing before. Overall, people are feeling status quo about income and savings, a little down in their investment outlook, and status quo about their debt and credit. It’s worth pointing out that the CFHI is better than it was this time last year. 

Gen Z is a mysterious voting bloc. We published some fascinating data this week about younger Gen Z adults (18-24) heading into their first presidential election as a sizable portion of the electorate. On a sad but generationally consistent note, they’re twice as likely as adults 25 and older to say they don’t plan to vote. More interestingly, they’re also twice as likely to remain undecided on their choice for President. How will they make up their minds? I don’t know. They’re much less likely to watch next week’s debate. Also, Taylor Swift could help – or hurt.

National broadcast networks have crept past cable networks as America’s go-to for political news. Americans are tuning back into politics after months of historically unprecedented aloofness (or avoidance), although they remain far less engaged than they were four years ago. When asked where they turn first for political news, it’s a tight race between national broadcast (21%), cable (20%), and local (19%) outlets. But, when asked which outlets they trust the most for political news, the answer is “local” by a lot. Readership of political blogs/websites, meanwhile, has been plummeting. That and more about the state of political news consumption today can be perused here.

The NFL is driving more streaming service signups because of course it is. With more and more games only available on the likes of Peacock and Netflix, upwards of 18% of Americans and 33% of die-hard NFL fans are likely to subscribe to a new service this season. Also in our 3 Things to Know this week, we examined consumers’ concerns over the proposed Kroger-Albertsons merger and its impact on prices. Lastly, we looked at the somewhat surprising resiliency of terrestrial radio, as satellite radio is experiencing a recent slide.

Americans will believe anything. Nearly two-thirds of U.S. adults are convinced that one or more supernatural or paranormal phenomena exist – with ghosts and/or spirits at the top of the list. Just under 1 in 3 believe aliens have visited the earth. Everything from witches to fortune tellers lands in the double-digit percentage of believers. But the numbers vary significantly by gender – and religion. Anyway, this is a fun read.

More awesomeness from the InsightStore™ – lots more since I skipped Labor Day weekend:

The most popular questions this week: 

To what extent do you agree or disagree with the practice of tipping in general?

Do you find it easy or difficult to forgive yourself for past mistakes?

How confident are you in your cooking skills?

Do you generally prefer formal or casual attire?

How important is it to you that your holiday meals are homemade?

Answer Key: Big fan; Extremely difficult; Very; Does anyone prefer formal?; Only for Thanksgiving.

Hoping you’re well.

JD

Want on the list? Clients can request access here. Ready to track real-time trends, uncover hidden consumer insights, and drive winning market strategies? Let’s talk.


In case you’re wondering, I write this informal email to CivicScience clients, friends, and other VIPs every Saturday morning. If you’re getting this, you’re either one of those people or were referred to me by one of them. I always love your comments and feedback.

CivicScience Podcast | LinkedIn | Twitter | Answer Polls