If today wasn’t the 8th birthday of this email, I probably would’ve bailed this week.
I don’t have the luxury of endorsing political candidates, not that I’m self-important enough to think anyone cares. As the leader of a company whose entire value proposition is based on objective truth, any suspicion of bias or agenda in our data would be bad for shareholder value. I don’t even donate to campaigns for that reason, which makes for a handy excuse.
But it’s painfully difficult to keep my mouth shut, especially at a time when each of us needs to advocate for what’s right. As someone who readily opines on all manner of issues every week, my silence feels particularly deafening. Plus, all tiny shreds of humility aside, I do believe I have more credibility on these things than the average bear.
My career has taken me from the federal government to the bowels of campaign politics and lobbying to economics, sociology, and media. I’ve written enacted legislation and helped to elect a major candidate or two. For the past decade and change, I’ve had the largest-scale and deepest view into the human psyche ever built at my fingertips. It’s often given me the privilege of being in “the room where it happens,” helping some of the world’s most influential companies through their biggest decisions. I know how the sausage is made.
So yeah, I hold my opinions on who should – or shouldn’t – be President in pretty high regard.
If we all have anything in common today, it’s our mutual incredulity toward the other side. Why in the world would anyone vote for THAT person? Dumbfounded, we jump to conclusions – they must be racist or sexist or uneducated or brainwashed. Maybe it’s true. Good luck getting anyone to acknowledge that, if they’re even conscious of it.
“The why” is one question CivicScience is most uniquely able to answer. As I’ve said a million times, we’re in the empathy business. We understand what makes people tick – and maybe more importantly during campaign season – what doesn’t. We see the innate good in people, their susceptibilities, and the impact of the evil forces attempting to manipulate them.
Mostly, we see how difficult it is for people to change. It can take a lifetime.
So, I’m not here to try. You’ve made up your mind. And, if you’ve read between the lines of these emails over the past 8 years, you know who I’m voting for. Hopefully, we agree.
Either way, vote.
Here’s what we’re seeing:
You can easily tell a Trump voter from a Harris voter based on the brands they buy. This probably isn’t earth-shattering news – stereotypes are a real timesaver. Nonetheless, we took the hundreds of brands we track and crossed them among voters for the two major candidates. You can see the free giveaways here. Bloomingdale’s was the top retailer among Harris voters. Makes sense. Guess Clothing was tops in retail among Trump voters. Makes less sense. Under Armour shoes were dead last for Harris, Uno Pizzeria & Grill for Trump. I also shared this to let you know that on November 12th, we will be hosting a CLIENT-ONLY webinar sharing hot-off-the-press post-election sentiment data and how we believe it will impact consumer spending in the months ahead – which makes the above brand insights all the more important. P.S. – If you want to see where your brand falls on the list, let me know.
On that note, over two-thirds of Americans say their spending, investing, and travel plans will likely change based on who wins next week. In our 3 Things to Know this week, we also plugged our upcoming webinar by revealing that nearly 40% of U.S. adults are “very likely” to change their financial behaviors after the election. Another 29% are “somewhat likely.” That’s huge. We also saw that COVID concerns peaked again in September before falling again in October, but remain far below last year. Finally, like clockwork, we showed that the vast majority of Americans support making daylight saving time permanent. Why doesn’t this just happen already?
A troubling percentage of U.S. families are piling up credit card debt, just to pay the bills. A full 41% of U.S. adults say they regularly use a credit card to pay for groceries, gas, and typical monthly expenses. They over-index between the ages of 35 and 54, parents, and those making between $50-$100k in annual income. Surprisingly, it’s not uncommon among people making over $100k either. Nearly half of all take-on-debt-to-pay-the-bills consumers carry extended balances over $1,000 and over 1-in-4 carry more than $5,000. That’s a ton of interest. Notably, these debt-carriers are way further ahead in their holiday shopping than those without.
So, regardless of who wins the election, people will be aggressively deal-hunting this holiday season – although it will vary by party affiliation. In our latest glimpse ahead at the holiday spending surge coming this month (people have definitely been sitting on their hands until the election is over), we found further evidence that shoppers will be looking far and wide for savings. Thirty-nine percent of consumers say “deals and promotions” will be most important to them when deciding where to shop, up from 35% last year. And when they find an item in your store that’s too expensive, they’ll turn elsewhere.
Retailers can definitely win this holiday season by leaning hard into ‘90s nostalgia. I wrote about this general topic in one of my missives a few weeks ago – and now we have more data to confirm it. When asked what era they’re most nostalgic for, Americans answer “the ‘90s” above all other decades. The music and movies drive that nostalgic feeling the most, with fashion and toys far behind. Meanwhile, people under the age of 35 – the majority of whom were barely out of diapers in the ‘90s, are 3 times more likely than over-35s to buy ‘90s-themed apparel and other goods. Brands like GAP and Buffalo Wild Wings are particularly popular among nostalgia-seekers.
More awesomeness from the InsightStore™:
- Here’s how people will be watching the returns on Election Day;
- Fascinating factoids into people who read fashion and style publications;
- The popularity of haunted houses is on the rise and other spooky insights.
The most popular questions this week:
Have you ever personally experienced a “Hail Mary” moment in your life or career?
What is your favorite type of chocolate?
What’s your favorite way to eat potatoes?
Would you ever submit your own love story to a national publication?
Answer Key: More than I can count; Dark as hell; Never, ever; F1, very much; Scalloped; If this email counts (it does), then I already did.
