COVID kicked my ass this week.
It hit me out of nowhere on Tuesday, with minor warning signs I chalked up as allergies. I’ve been quarantined in our guest room ever since, laptop on my chest, answering time-sensitive emails, joining meetings off-camera, and sleeping in between. The brain fog is no joke.
I was at least able to finally binge-watch Slow Horses in the evenings. Poor Tara has been carrying the house on her shoulders.
It’s my third confirmed tour, despite being an adherent vaxxer and booster. Remarkably, each bout was exactly 16 months apart. It’s probably a coincidence. Or perhaps that’s precisely how long my natural immunity lasts. Just in case, I’ll be extra careful in August of 2026.
It’s also possible I spoke it into existence. I’ve been saying for weeks how much the current consumer and business climate reminds me of the early months of the pandemic.
Jinxes aside, it’s indeed a stark reminder that our world will never be the same as it was before March of 2020. For one, we have a new endemic virus nobody can avoid without being a shut-in. Don’t tell me it’s like the flu. I get a vaccine every year and haven’t had the flu in 20 years. COVID is different.
But it’s more than that. The pandemic taught us that the worst can happen, more so than even 9/11. It taught us that we’re globally intertwined, no matter how insulated or self-reliant we may try to be.
But it also taught us we have a modicum of control in how we respond, how we prioritize, and how we take care of ourselves, physically and emotionally. It brought us closer to our immediate families, if also more distant from everyone else.
In many ways, how consumers are reacting to the current state of sociopolitical uncertainty is less a replay of the early COVID days and more a natural extension of how much they changed us. People are bracing for the worst – a recession and tariff-driven inflation – even as neither is yet fait accompli. They’re responding by staying home more, stockpiling some goods while forgoing others, and jostling their spending to preserve categories of self-care, whatever that means to them.
The effects of the pandemic are here to stay, for better or worse.
For me this week, it was way worse.
Here’s what we’re seeing:
Consumer confidence fell yet again – before Wednesday. Our Economic Sentiment Index slid for the fifth consecutive reading, a record-losing streak. Importantly, the public release only included data through Tuesday, so the impact of the “Liberation Day” madness is only known to those of us with the keys to the kingdom. None of the main indicators moved very much over the preceding two weeks, but the net was yet again in the red. Grab your popcorn for the next one.
As mentioned earlier, consumers are beginning to buy products ahead of expected tariff increases, driven mostly by middle-income households. It’s not exactly fair to call it hoarding, but 15% of U.S. adults report purchasing at least one category of products earlier than planned, to avoid potential future cost increases. It jumps to 1 in 5 among households making between $50-$100k in income. Topping the list of purchase categories are essentials like food and beverages (ok, maybe this is hoarding) and apparel. But it’s hitting lots of other industries too, from auto parts to pharmaceuticals. I can’t tell you if this will speed up or slow down after Wednesday.
The economic headwinds don’t appear to be deterring people from getting their groceries delivered. In our 3 Things to Know this week, we learned that over three-fourths of Americans have food delivered to their homes at least once a month. We also found that, while the vast majority of U.S. adults think it’s a bad time to make a major purchase, those who think it’s a good time have been increasing over the past few weeks. Finally, we looked at which forms of debt Americans are most comfortable about taking on.
The youth multi-sport athlete is alive and well. The common refrain (often, complaint) is that kids are under pressure to commit to a single sport much earlier than they did “when we were their age,” owed to year-round travel teams and such. Well, it might be an old wives’ tale because the data suggest otherwise. Sixty-five percent of parents with sports-playing kids say their children play more than one sport. Thirty percent say their kids play 3 or more. Basketball tops the list, followed by football, soccer, and baseball/softball – but track isn’t far behind. And parents are keeping it high on their spending priorities.
Unintuitively, newlyweds are planning to spend more on their weddings this year. The big asterisk here is that far fewer people plan to get married in 2025 (4%) compared to 2024 (7%). So, it’s possible the financial climate is deterring lower-income couples from getting married at all. Of those who are still tying the knot, the percentage who plan to spend over $10k on their event jumped, while those who plan to spend less than $10k fell. Still, engaged couples are finding ways to manage their expenses, by delaying their receptions or buying their gowns and tuxes online. Specialty wedding retail chains look like they’ll take a hit.
More awesomeness from the InsightStore this week:
- Our latest Emotional Well-Being Index fell at the end of March;
- Our Consumer Financial Health Index fell even harder, due to investment and savings worries (shocker).
The most popular questions of the week:
Were you satisfied with the ‘White Lotus’ season finale?
Do you watch more, fewer, or about as many movies as other people?
Do you frequently eat at local diners?
How much do you like watching musicals / plays?
How safe would you feel in a robotaxi?
Answer Key: Absolutely loved it – and the whole season; Fewer, I think; As often as I can; More than the average bear; Pretty safe, I think.
Hoping you’re well,
JD
