The HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (“ESI”) is a “living” index that measures U.S. adults’ expectations for the economy going forward, as well as their feelings about current conditions for major purchases. The primary goal of the Index is to accurately measure movements in overall national economic sentiment and to provide a more sophisticated alternative to existing economic sentiment indices. Unlike other prominent indices that release consumer sentiment estimates infrequently, the HPS-CivicScience Index is updated in real time as responses are collected continuously every hour, every day. Large-scale cross-tabulation of survey responses and consumer attributes enable more granular analyses than are currently possible through prevailing measures.
Excerpt From the Latest Reading:
Consumer confidence increased significantly over the past two weeks, according to the HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (ESI). Following a 2.2 point drop from May 14 to June 11, the ESI rebounded over the past two weeks, increasing 2.6 points to reach 54.2 – its highest level since February 2018.
All five of the ESI indicators increased during the reading. Confidence in the broader U.S. economy rose the most, increasing 4.2 points to 50.7, its highest reading since September 2018. Consumer confidence in making a major purchase rose 3.1 points to 56.6. Confidence in personal finances and the housing market also increased, rising 3.0 points and 2.1 points respectively. Economic sentiment toward the labor market was the slowest rising indicator increasing 0.6 points to 45.0, well below its 2019 high of 48.1 in May.
The increase in consumer confidence comes as the Federal Reserve decided to keep interest rates unchanged, but signaled potentially cutting rates in the coming months.