The Microsoft-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index powered by HPS (“ESI”) is a “living” index that measures U.S. adults’ expectations for the economy going forward, as well as their feelings about current conditions for major purchases. The primary goal of the Index is to accurately measure movements in overall national economic sentiment and to provide a more sophisticated alternative to existing economic sentiment indices. Unlike other prominent indices that release consumer sentiment estimates infrequently, the Microsoft-CivicScience Index is updated in real-time as responses are collected continuously every hour, every day. Large-scale cross-tabulation of survey responses and consumer attributes enable more granular analyses than are currently possible through prevailing measures.

Latest ESI Reading

Consumer confidence continued its two-month-long rise, according to the Microsoft News-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (ESI). Confidence continued its steady climb, rising by 0.5 points to reach a four-month high of 52.1. The reading was driven by a 1.4-point increase in consumers’ confidence in making a major purchase, which occurred over the first two weeks of the holiday shopping season.

Five indicators

Four of the ESI’s five indicators increased during the reading period. Consumer confidence toward making a major purchase increased the most, rising by 1.4 points to 54.8. Confidence in the U.S. economy and the job market increased at steady clips with both rising by 1.2 points. Consumer sentiment toward personal finances increased at a slower rate, rising by 0.3 points to 63.2. Confidence in the housing market was the sole indicator to decline, dropping by 1.5 points to 50.5. The increase in consumer sentiment comes amid a better than expected jobs report that resulted in the unemployment rate tying a 50-year low. Simultaneously, Congress seems to have moved closer to passing the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), America’s new free trade agreement with Mexico and Canada.

Read the full report here.