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Our data is having déjà vu. The recent convergence of global economic forces, daily domestic policy changes, and resulting consumer uncertainty – and fear – have produced market cloudiness eerily reminiscent of the early days of COVID-19. In our recent webinar, presented by CivicScience CEO and Founder John Dick, we explored key findings on U.S. consumer sentiment and confidence, fears surrounding tariffs and recession, and the ripple effects on current and future spending. Here’s a glimpse at the key findings from the webinar — you can access the full recording here.
Answer our Poll: Do you think a US recession is imminent?
1. The Three U.S. Economies
Macroeconomic sentiment is declining at a rate we haven’t seen in a long time. CivicScience’s Economic Sentiment Index has dropped with each reading since early this year, driven by falling confidence in the U.S. economy in the latest reading. Our Consumer Financial Health Index has also trended downward, though it recently ticked up slightly due to an improved outlook on debt. This overall decline fuels growing expectations of a recession and sustained pullback in consumer spending. Data shows 70% of U.S. adults believe a recession is imminent, with concerns most prominent among Democrats – though they’re rising among Republicans – and high-income households as well. Coupled with tariff concerns, consumers are taking a multitude of actions to curb spending and preserve priority categories.
2. COVID Déjà Vu?
All of this echoes patterns we saw during the COVID era. Fear and anxiety have been rising among Americans since the start of the year, accompanied by a decline in the number of people wanting to leave their homes. This shift is reflected in other behaviors too — more people are opting to eat breakfast and drink coffee at home, and there’s renewed support for local and independent restaurants, a trend that gained traction during the pandemic. On top of that, stockpiling is making a comeback.
Weigh In: Will tariffs impact your purchasing decisions?
3. Time to Play Hardball
Fear is driving rapid shifts in behavior, making it more crucial than ever for brands to lean into messages of comfort and stability. CivicScience data shows that consumer confidence varies widely by brand — for example, Domino’s and McDonald’s show stronger optimism about the economy, while Arby’s and Wendy’s lag behind the general population. However, the pace of change is just as important as the level of confidence. Brands like Walmart and Home Depot are experiencing sharp declines, highlighting the urgency for businesses to stay attuned to shifting consumer sentiment.
Use our Data: CivicScience clients have a real-time pulse on how the latest consumer trends are impacting their customer’s (and their competitors’ customers too).
Overall, while these trends reflect the general population, understanding their impact on your customers requires deeper psychographic segmentation and personalized insights. In a rapidly evolving landscape, agility will be essential for brands to adapt and stay connected to shifting consumer needs. To get the full story, access the webinar recording here.
