The HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (“ESI”) is a “living” index that measures U.S. adults’ expectations for the economy going forward, as well as their feelings about current conditions for major purchases. The primary goal of the Index is to accurately measure movements in overall national economic sentiment and to provide a more sophisticated alternative to existing economic sentiment indices. Unlike other prominent indices that release consumer sentiment estimates infrequently, the HPS-CivicScience Index is updated in real time as responses are collected continuously every hour, every day. Large-scale cross-tabulation of survey responses and consumer attributes enable more granular analyses than are currently possible through prevailing measures.

Excerpt From the Latest Reading: 

The Economic Sentiment Index increased slightly, according to the HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (ESI), thanks to increased confidence in the broader U.S. economy. The index reading improved by a total of 0.5 points, from a reading of 52.8 points to 53.3 points. The renewed confidence in the U.S. economy offset declines in consumer faith in the housing market, making a major purchase, and personal finances.

After falling from February highs, consumer confidence has remained relatively consistent over the last two months, with an average reading of 52.9. During this time-period, the ESI has never exceeded 53.6 or fallen below 51.9 – a difference of 1.7 points.

The slight increase in the ESI was driven by increases in two of the ESI’s five indicators. Confidence in the broader economy increased by 3.7 points to a reading of 51.1, its highest level in over a month. Economic sentiment towards the U.S. housing market experienced the second largest move, offsetting gains in the broader economy. Confidence in the U.S. housing market fell 1.2 points to 48.4 during the reading period. While economic sentiment towards the U.S. labor market rose by 1.2 points, its highest reading since March 20th. Consumer confidence also fell across the other two indicators, with confidence in personal finances and making a major purchase declining by 0.7 and 0.4 points respectively.


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