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As economic sentiment declines further and Americans fear higher inflation amid President Trump’s tariff talks, could a recession be on the horizon? The latest CivicScience data from 200K+ respondents over the past few years reveal that a plurality of consumers (39%) now believe a ‘recession is coming, but is not here yet’—a level last seen in mid-2023. Meanwhile, the percentage who say ‘we are already in a recession’ has dropped to a low of 29%, while those who feel ‘a recession is not coming’ have seen a slight month-to-month increase, reaching 32%.
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Along with a heightened sentiment that a recession is coming, a plurality of Americans also reports that they’re ‘very concerned’ that a recession is likely in the near future (40%), just surpassing the percentage ‘somewhat concerned’ (37%, excluding those who answered ‘I don’t know’). Conversely, the percentage ‘not at all concerned’ has been at a high over the last couple of months (23%).
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However, a close look at certain demographics offers a nuanced perspective. For instance, as expected, Democrats have surpassed Republicans in strong recession concerns since the November 2024 presidential election, with concerns among Democrats currently at a yearly high of 58% (as of February 28). Conversely, Republicans have grown less concerned about a recession since Trump took office, at a yearly low of 21%. Independents remain in the middle (40%).
Concerns also vary by expected household income. While households with an expected annual income of under $50K reported the strongest concerns of a recession just before the presidential election, higher-income households ($100K+) – who likely have more invested – have recently overtaken all other income groups as the most concerned about a recession. This comes as the CivicScience Consumer Financial Health Index reported a drop in investing outlook.
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The latest data underscores a mixed economic outlook, where recession fears remain prevalent but not universally felt. While a plurality of Americans anticipate a recession in the coming months, fewer believe it has already arrived, and more believe one is not coming. Concerns are deeply influenced by political affiliation and income, with Democrats and higher-income households expressing the strongest concerns. As tariff discussions and inflation fears escalate, the trajectory of consumer confidence will be key in shaping expectations for the months ahead.
