In the lead up to the music industry’s biggest night, we analyzed over 36,000 survey responses about the Grammy Awards, who will be watching, and who they expect to win in some of the major categories. Here’s what we found:
Overall, 11% of Americans over age 13 say they are Very Likely to watch the awards show on Sunday night; 19% say they are Somewhat Likely. For comparison, 48% of Americans said they were Very Likely to watch the Super Bowl with another 20% Somewhat Likely. Here is the breakdown:
– Women are more than twice as likely to watch, with 31% saying at least Somewhat Likely, compared to just 15% of men.
– 43% of Very Likely viewers are under the age of 24; only 10% are over the age of 54.
– Among income categories, however, the largest group to say Very Likely were those making over $150,000/year, among whom 14% of people gave that response. Second were those making under $24,000/year at 11%.
– Viewership rates among minority groups are much higher than that of Whites. 59% of Hispanic or Latino respondents, 42% of Black respondents, and 41% of Asian or Pacific Islander respondents say they are at least Somewhat Likely to watch.
In general, the most likely Grammy watchers are more likely than non-watchers to live in an urban area, in either the US Northeast or West. They prefer Drama movies over other genres, and more regularly go to the movies. They watch ABC as their primary TV network and are more likely to watch CNN and MSNBC for cable news. They are more likely to describe their personal finances and the national economy as good. They’re also more likely to be a registered Democrat, and (no surprise) approve of how President Obama is handling his job. They are concerned about gas and energy prices, which could explain why they prefer compact cars more than everyone else. They spend between 5-15 hours per week on Facebook, and are more like to be a Twitter member and a smartphone user.
So Who Do People Think Will Win?
Here are the main categories in the order they’re most likely to be awarded:
When asked to predict who will win Best New Artist, 56% of people are not sure. When factoring out this answer, 33% of people think Fun will win the title, followed by Frank Ocean and the Lumineers, then Hunter Hayes, and lastly Alabama Shakes. Also:
-The majority of people who answered Fun were under 18 years old. The majority of people who answered Frank Ocean and The Lumineers were 18-24 years old. The age group who answered Hunter Hayes the most were under 18, followed by people who were 35-44.
-Those who answered Hunter Hayes are more likely to be from the Midwest, while people who answered Frank Ocean are more likely to be from the West.
Factoring out the 32% of people who are not sure, 31% of people think Mumford & Sons will win the Best Rock Performance at the Grammys, followed by 26% for Bruce Springsteen, 21% for The Black Keys, 15% for Coldplay, and only 7% for Alabama Shakes. Also:
-People who answered The Black Keys, Mumford & Sons, and Coldplay were more likely to be 18-24 years old. Those who chose Bruce Springsteen were more likely to be 55-64 years old
-Those who answered Mumford & Sons are more likely to have an advanced degree.
-People who responded with The Black Keys are more likely to be in the Midwest, while people who responded with the Alabama Shakes are more likely to be in the South.
Almost half of the people think Adele will win Best Pop Solo Performance. After taking into account the people who are not sure, Adele, with Set Fire to the Rain, leads with 48% of the votes. Next is Kelly Clarkson with Stronger, at 22% of the vote. Carly Rae Jepsen came in third with 15% of the vote for Call Me Maybe. Katy Perry and Rihanna are tied with last place with 7% each. When cross-tabbed:
-The majority of those who voted for Kelly Clarkson were 45+ years old. The majority of people who voted for Carly Rae Jepsen were under 18 years olds. People who voted for Adele were more likely to be 18-34 years old.
According to these predictions Taylor Swift’s “We Are Never Ever Getting Back Together” will win the Record of the Year at the Grammys with 28% of the vote (taking the 15% of I’m not sure answers out). Kelly Clarkson is close with 22% of the votes, followed by Fun. with 18% of the votes, next is Gotye with 15% of the votes, then The Black Keys with 9%, and in last place is Frank Ocean with 7%.
-People in the West chose Gotye more than those in the Midwest.
-People who voted for Frank Ocean were more likely to be from the West.
-Men answered the Black Keys more than women.
Right now Carly Rae Jepsen, Call Me Maybe, leads slightly for Song of the Year. By factoring out people who were not sure, she leads Kelly Clarkson by a hair. Close behind is Fun., We Are Young, while far behind are Ed Sheeran, The A Team, and Miguel, Adorn.
-Women answered Ed Sheeran 2X more than men.
-Those who answered Ed Sheeran were more likely under 18 years old; the majority of people who answered Miguel with Adorn were 34 and younger.
-People who voted for Ed Sheeran or Fun. are more likely to be from the West.
The biggest award of the night is also the closest. Here we see a tie between Fun., Some Nights, and Mumford & Sons, Babel, with 29% of the vote each (when the Not Sure votes were tossed out). Next are The Black Keys with El Camino, followed by Frank Ocean, Channel Orange and Jack White, Blunderbuss.
It will be a lot of fun next week to see how accurately people predicted the outcome. Have a great weekend.