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The winter holidays might feel far off, with Thanksgiving just over 14 weeks away, but holiday shopping has already started for some. CivicScience data show 35% of holiday shoppers report they’ve done at least ‘a little’ of their holiday shopping up to this point. While early holiday buying isn’t unusual, tariffs, rising costs, and general uncertainty are pushing shoppers to alter their gift-buying plans this year.
In fact, 66% of holiday shoppers who are aware that tariffs could raise prices on the gifts they buy are shifting their approach in some way this year. Notably, more than one-quarter say they will spend less on gifts overall, and 21% say they will be buying fewer gifts. For retailers and brands looking to capture shoppers who are in a buying mood, the earlier the better, with 17% looking to shop sooner in hopes of beating out rising costs. This percentage jumps to 26% among Gen Z aged 18-29, making for the highest share of any adult demographic.
If you’re a reader of CivicScience Founder & CEO John Dick’s weekly What We’re Seeing newsletter, you’ll have seen him occasionally refer to the “three U.S. economies” as economic optimism varies among the primary political affiliations. In the lens of tariff impacts on holiday shopping, Republicans, unsurprisingly, are the least likely to report that their holiday shopping has been affected by tariffs. Still, roughly half say their plans have been altered in some way, with a near equal split on their planned course of action.
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Also shifting this year is where Americans plan to shop for their holiday gifts. Last summer, 49% of holiday shoppers said they expected to spend the most money at big box stores. That percentage is down to 44% so far this summer. Small and locally-owned businesses and specialty or chain stores, on the other hand, have gained interest, with each rising by 2-3 points since last summer to sit at 22% and 9%, respectively today.
A breakdown of intent by age finds holiday shoppers under 45 are notably more likely to shop at specialty/chain stores and discount stores. The data also show the 45+ crowd is likely to drive a higher piece of the big box shopping share, while slightly outpacing their younger cohort on shopping at small/local businesses and department stores.
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When it comes to top gift priorities, clothing, shoes, and accessories garner the most interest among holiday shoppers as the data stands today, particularly among shoppers who are 45 and older. The 45+ demographic is also most likely to purchase experience-based gifts. The under-45 crowd is most likely to target tech, home/outdoor, and art/collectibles/crafting.
The data suggest this holiday season could be shaped less by tradition and more by pragmatism, as shoppers weigh costs, tariffs, and timing against their gifting priorities. For retailers, the winners will likely be those who engage younger consumers early, balance value with variety, and adapt quickly to shifting channel preferences that are already diverging across age groups.
