With five weeks to go until the election for Allegheny County Executive, we thought it would be fun to share some data we’ve been analyzing on the race between Democrat Rich Fitzgerald and Republican D. Raja. We will share updated results in two weeks, and again one day before the election (Nov. 7). This research was conducted independently. It was not commissioned or sponsored by any third-party.
Our data show Democratic Candidate Rich Fitzgerald (41%) with a 10-point lead over Republican Candidate D. Raja (31%) with 28% of voters still Undecided. Some of the notable highlights include:
– Fitzgerald’s lead is buoyed primarily by female voters, where he leads 42% to 27%
– Male voters are divided evenly: 39% for Fitzgerald, 39% for Raja, 22% Undecided
– Fitzgerald leads among Pittsburgh residents by 27 points
– Fitzgerald leads among non-city residents by 6 points
– Fitzgerald’s lead is largest among voters aged 55 and older (+14%), smallest among voters <55 (+1%)
– Raja is strongest among men under the age of 55, where he leads 49%-35%.
– Fitzgerald leads among all income brackets EXCEPT for voters who make between $100,001 and $125,000 annually. Raja leads among this group 42%-37%
– The largest blocs of Undecided voters can be found among Females (33%), 55-64 year-olds (32%), Voters making under $35,000 annually (52%), and registered Democrats (30%)
ABOUT THESE RESULTS
Analysis was based on survey data collected from 1,208 registered voters in Allegheny County. The reported results were computed based on responses from 673 “Likely Voters,” as determined by a proprietary model developed by CIVICSCIENCE, which considers, among other factors, a voter’s participation in the May primary, their frequency of voting in previous state or local elections, their expressed intention to vote in the upcoming election, and political behaviors such as placing a yard sign in their yard or following a candidate on social media.
Surveys were conducted through polling applications distributed over third-party websites and social networks between September 22 and September 28. Respondents were selected to participate at random. Digital credentialing techniques were used to prevent repeat voting and to achieve representative distributions of demographic and ideological segments of the voting population.
Topline sampling breakdowns and complete cross-tabs can be viewed HERE.