This is not a climate change rant.
But look at this chart:
The precipitous drop in Americans’ environmental concerns over the past five years – and, yes, the past two weeks – is astonishing. No string of record-strength hurricanes, coastal erosion, biblical flooding, wildfires, or prohibitive home insurance policies stemmed the decline. No correlation, no causation.
One could argue that the denier faction is winning the information war on climate change, that science, academia, and Hollywood (in more ways than one) are losing. There’s also a case to be made that plummeting institutional trust, particularly in government, makes political ineptitude a more likely villain than carbon emissions to the average consumer. All can be true.
The real – or at least primary – explanation is simpler.
People only have the bandwidth to worry about so many things at once.
Those worries are hierarchical. Imminent physical harm, the likes of which people might fear during a global pandemic or the wake of a major terrorist attack, ranks at the top. Financial security trumps all else (Side note: The fact that I haven’t found a sufficient synonym for that verb in ten years is torture). Education and healthcare are on a distant second tier.
The trend we see in environmental concerns, in the face of intuitive reasons to expect otherwise, demonstrates where the topic lives in our collective hierarchy. It fell in 2020 and 2021 because people were consumed by COVID fears. It’s fallen since because of economic headwinds. Other forces may have contributed—a little.
If I showed you our tracking data on racial and gender equality concerns, you’d see a similar peak and valley starting in 2020. The drop is less dramatic, if only because large, marginalized populations view those issues as doing imminent harm. But, overall, they’ve fallen.
It explains the stunning reversals we’ve seen recently around the acronym salad of DEI, ESG, and CSR. Those topics – like the environment – grew into stature during a lengthy run of prosperity in our country, when people were economically secure enough to worry about unselfish things. Companies and governments, ever incapable of moving at the speed of culture, implemented their social responsibility initiatives just in time to watch the pendulum swing. Lucky for them, it’s much easier and more profitable to kill a program than to start it.
Eventually, the pendulum will swing again, if more slowly. And, barring an unforeseen event (which sadly seems more likely than not), you can bet it will coincide with a sustained, years-long uptick in consumer confidence. Hopefully, we aren’t under water or ashes first.
You can lament the shortsightedness of it all. You can lament basic human nature. You can lament the secondary causes and inevitable consequences, such as they are.
It doesn’t make it any less true.
Here’s what we’re seeing:
That sustained uptick in consumer confidence isn’t happening anytime soon. Our Economic Sentiment Index didn’t get off on the right foot this year, falling steeply over the past two weeks. As you know if you pay attention, that doesn’t bode well for spending on goods in the days ahead. Four of our five major metrics fell, with confidence in major purchases and personal finances leading the way. Only attitudes about the longer-term economy were in the black. It’s too early to call it a trend, but it’s clearly the biggest two-week decline in over a year.
That improved long-term outlook for the economy was driven – shocker – by Republicans. In our 3 Things to Know this week, we checked back on the tribal underpinnings of consumer confidence, which are even more dramatic right now than those we saw after the 2020 and 2016 elections. It’s worth pointing out that Democrats are also slightly more optimistic since the start of the year. We also looked at where TikTokers are most likely to shift their attention if the platform is ultimately banned. Spoiler alert: Meta stands to benefit immensely. Finally, we gauged public opinion toward the Surgeon General’s proposal to add health risk labels to alcoholic beverages. It’s a total buzzkill.
Speaking of Meta – and political tribalism – Zuck’s new content policies are drawing mixed reactions. Support (36%) for the decision to end fact-checking on Facebook & Family outweighs opposition (32%) among the general U.S. population. Gen Z is overwhelmingly responsible for tipping the scales, as support for the move outnumbers opposition by over 5 to 1 among young adults. The stats tell a different story among only active users of Meta platforms, the bulk of which is Facebook, which Gen Z doesn’t use. Twenty-five percent of Meta users say they’re less likely to engage with the apps as a result of the policy, while 19% are more likely. Republicans say they’re more likely, by an even 4 to 1.
A cryptocurrency resurgence is percolating. Crypto Bros have high expectations for the new Trump Administration after the soon-to-be-President-again signaled favorable vibes throughout his campaign. It likely explains why we’ve seen the percentage of U.S. adults who invest in cryptocurrency climb 2 points over the past three months, while intent ticked up as well. Further supporting the notion that it’s a clear Trump effect is the fact that Democrats are far less likely than Republicans to be interested in making crypto investments in the future. Among those who follow the crypto market, the outlook is all sunshine and rainbows.
Don’t expect the GLP-1 freight train to slow in 2025. In the latest free taste of our Ozempic and GLP-1 Consumer Tracker, we see that the impact of these drugs is nowhere near hitting its ceiling. One of the most notable trends we found is in apparel, where GLP-1 users are shifting to new “edgy” styles, shopping for more bathing suits and tank tops, and buying from different brands and even retailers. The alcohol industry is continuing to get crushed, particularly wine, which has fallen the most among those using the drugs. Brown liquor seems to have leveled off after sliding early last year. Meanwhile, a clear plurality of Americans believes Medicare and Medicaid should cover GLP-1s. Unlikely in the incoming administration, but it could happen.
More awesomeness from the InsightStore:
- More on the California wildfires;
- 5 fitness trends to watch in 2025.
The most popular questions this week:
Do you spend enough quality time with your family?
Would you say that you work better alone or in a group?
Do you frequently suffer from burnout?
Who typically does the grocery shopping in your household?
How much do you like planning / remodeling in your house?
Do you think technological advancements are increasing human loneliness?
Answer Key: Never enough; Alone; Probably; I do; One of my least favorite things; A million percent.
