The HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (“ESI”) is a “living” index that measures U.S. adults’ expectations for the economy going forward, as well as their feelings about current conditions for major purchases. The primary goal of the Index is to accurately measure movements in overall national economic sentiment and to provide a more sophisticated alternative to existing economic sentiment indices. Unlike other prominent indices that release consumer sentiment estimates infrequently, the HPS-CivicScience Index is updated in real-time as responses are collected continuously every hour, every day. Large-scale cross-tabulation of survey responses and consumer attributes enable more granular analyses than are currently possible through prevailing measures.
Excerpt From the Latest Reading:
Consumer confidence rebounded significantly over the past two weeks, according to the HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (ESI). Following last reading’s decline of 1.2 points, the ESI moved up by 2.5 points during this reading to reach 54.5, its highest level since February 2018’s reading of 55.6. The rebound was led by large increases in consumer confidence in making a major purchase and confidence toward the labor market.
Four of the ESI’s five indicators increased over the past two weeks. Consumer confidence in making a major purchase experienced the largest improvement, rising by 3.7 points to 57.4. Sentiment toward the labor and housing markets also jumped by similar amounts, moving up 3.5 and 3.3 points, respectively. Consumer confidence in the broader U.S. economy also improved, increasing by 2.5 points. Meanwhile, the only indicator to drop was confidence in personal finances, which declined by 0.6 points to 65.5.
The rebound comes on the heels of several positive economic signals, including the long-awaited signing of the U.S.-China phase one trade deal and a solid December jobs report that concluded 2019’s significant job growth of over 2.1 million jobs. Additionally, earnings season kicked off to a strong start, with several American banks reporting better-than-expected earnings.
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