Late last week we shared some of our data on the bigger motion picture releases this month, looking backward at the opening weekend of the Lorax and forward to the weekend opening of John Carter. IT’S WAY TOO EARLY TO TELL if this wasn’t just lucky, given that we only have a sample of two movies to go by. But it’s pretty cool to look at the results (unless, of course, you own stock in Disney).
Our pre-release Lorax numbers suggested that 16% of respondents said they planned to see the movie in theaters. On opening weekend (March 2-3), the Lorax did $70M in ticket sales.
Meanwhile, our pre-release John Carter numbers suggested that 7% of respondents were planning to see the movie in theaters. This equalled 43.7% of the number of people who said they would see the Lorax in theaters.
Today, estimates put John Carter’s opening weekend sales at $30.6 Million. Do you have a calculator handy? That’s exactly 43.7% of the opening weekend sales of the Lorax.
This was our first real attempt to measure consumer sentiment toward movies, so it’s way too soon to do any cart-wheels over here. The next one we’re tracking is Hunger Games, scheduled for release in a couple weeks. We’ll take a stab at predicting box office returns closer to the release date. Chances are, our formulas need a bit more tweaking. But we’ll see.