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As the second half of 2025 kicks off, marketers face a landscape shaped by political and economic shifts. The year began with Donald Trump’s inauguration for a second term in January, followed by a series of executive actions, the expansion of tariffs on key imports, and increased immigration enforcement activity. Beyond global trade, tensions in the Middle East escalated, with the U.S., Iran, and Israel involved in military exchanges during the spring and early summer. Now, with July marking the official start of Q3 — and following the signing of the “Big Beautiful Bill,” which introduced tax cuts and reductions to social programs — the uncertainty that defined the first half of the year is likely to carry into the second half, affecting travel, major shopping periods like the winter holiday season. Here are three key insights marketers should keep in mind as we move into the latter half of 2025.
1. New winter holiday trends are emerging, here’s what you should be doing now.
Tariffs and price uncertainty are driving Americans to get a head start on their winter holiday shopping. According to data shared in our recent webinar, 21% of holiday shoppers say they’ve already started – a five-point increase from this time last year. As a result, slightly fewer consumers plan to shop from Thanksgiving onward. Still, there’s been a modest rise in those planning to wait until the final two weeks of December – perhaps reflecting a wait-and-see approach in response to pricing volatility. While most shopping will still cluster around the Thanksgiving window, thanks to Black Friday deals, marketers should focus on their targeting now and prepare for a final push in late December.
Tariffs are also influencing overall gift-buying. In particular, Millennials, Gen Z adults, and parents of Gen Alpha children – with younger Americans more likely to carry student loan debt and use flexible payment options – say they are spending less and purchasing fewer gifts in general, which could likely translate into holiday shopping habits.
This is just the tip of the iceberg of data from our recent webinar, which also examined the other holiday shopping impacts, including big-box retail shopping, toy shopping, and online shopping. Want to access the full data set or see how these trends play out among your specific customer segments? Get in touch with us.
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2. In a sea of spending pullbacks, health and wellness stands out as a key area where spending intent is net positive.
New data shows that categories like tech, apparel, entertainment, and travel are seeing more Americans planning to spend ‘less’ than ‘more’ this season (among those increasing/decreasing spending in at least one category studied). Nearly every discretionary category is in the red, with the steepest net declines in sporting goods (-21pp), entertainment (-20pp), and electronics (-18pp). Even beauty, which often performs well in downturns thanks to the lipstick effect, is down (-12pp). Home improvement, which held steady during the pandemic, is also softening with a net drop of -13pp.
While other sectors face cutbacks, consumers appear unwilling to compromise on their physical and mental well-being. Health and wellness is the only category studied showing a positive net gain (+7pp). For marketers, this is a signal to lean into wellness-aligned messaging, whether through products, services, or campaigns that speak to self-care, stress relief, and personal resilience.
Use this Data: CivicScience clients have access to insights like these, allowing them to stay ahead of the curve and see how their customers are shifting in real-time.
3. Consumer skepticism is rising as more brands lean on AI-driven advertising.
More brands are adopting AI tools to create and optimize ads – a shift that’s likely to become more prevalent heading into major seasons like back-to-school, holiday shopping, and winter travel. However, CivicScience data show that consumers aren’t fully on board: just 22% view brands that use AI-powered advertising positively, while far more (37%) say they have a negative perception.
At the same time, roughly 30% of U.S. adults say they’re less likely to buy from brands that use AI in advertising, more than doubling the 12% who say they’re more likely to do so. Younger consumers tend to view AI-driven ads more favorably, while those aged 65+ are more likely to avoid purchases from such brands. Although a majority say AI ads have no impact on their buying decisions, the fact that over 4 in 10 consumers are either deterred or swayed by AI in advertising signals a growing divide. As AI-powered advertising becomes more common, brands must strike a careful balance between automation and authenticity to maintain consumer trust.
The second half of 2025 presents a unique mix of urgency and uncertainty for marketers. Shifting consumer timelines, tighter budgets, and rising expectations around authenticity are already reshaping the path to purchase, and these pressures will only intensify as we head into the key shopping periods. To stay relevant, brands will need to rely on real-time consumer insights, deliver messaging that feels authentic, and remain agile in a landscape where uncertainty is becoming the norm.
