It’s going to be a fantastic year.
How do I know? I don’t. But I certainly won’t start things off thinking otherwise. Optimism rules.
And before you ask, I’m desensitized to the political maelstrom at this point. Trump’s going to do whatever he does and it will have whatever ramifications it has. There’s little any of us can do right now but grab our popcorn and watch.
For once, I’ll resist the temptation and self-importance to regale you with predictions for 2025. Even the best prognosticators are wrong most of the time, so what’s the point?
Instead, here are three things I’ll be watching closely – and likely talking a lot about – this year:
- The Reemergence of the 50+ Consumer: Marketers’ obsession needs to shift from Gen Z (they’re broke) and Millennials (super-broke) and pivot to Americans in their 50s and beyond. Not only are gray hairs sitting on piles of savings and stock market gains, but they’ve become rapidly more tech and media-savvy, early adopters across nearly every category, and significantly less brand loyal than past generations of oldsters. Brands who win will toss out conventional wisdom and invest their marketing dollars accordingly. (Note: I will predict that I’ll turn 50 this year.)
- The Post-2024 Media Hangover: Media outlets are in for a perilous year – if not nuclear winter – as they wrestle with the YoY comps of unprecedented political advertising, the Olympics, and even the Caitlin Clark effect. Publishers who win will leverage data and audience insights in sophisticated, cost-effective ways, strengthen direct relationships with advertisers who are increasingly moving their media-buying “in-house,” and (see above) lean into their ability to reach consumers who have money to spend.
- Collaboration is King: As the epidemic decline of institutional trust continues to search for the bottom, the most successful marketers (brands and media) will look to borrow trust from others. Evidenced by the playbooks of rocket ships like e.l.f Beauty and Raising Cane’s, forming smart and creative “collabs” is one of the most sure-fire marketing hacks of our time. In fact, expect to see some of this from CivicScience in the coming months.
Notably absent from that short list – perhaps, literally, the only 2025 prospectus of its kind to say this – is the term AI. Will it be relevant to business and Wall St? Absolutely. I simply don’t think its profound, consumer-facing days are here yet.
I also want to offer my deepest sympathy and heartfelt prayers to my fellow humans in Los Angeles. I have plenty to say on that subject another time.
So, stay tuned for all that and more in your Saturday mornings to come.
Here’s what we’re seeing:
One thing I’m not bullish on this year is the alcohol industry again. This topic will be sprinkled a couple of times throughout today’s content, but let’s start by reporting that interest in Dry January has reached yet another all-time high. A full 54% of drinking-age U.S. adults (who consume alcohol) say they’re at least somewhat likely to go on the wagon this month, up two percentage points from last year and 19 percentage points from 2020. I took eight days off to fool my doctor with some clean bloodwork, but that’s about all I’m willing to do. It was overrated.
Older Americans are significantly more optimistic, at least financially, than they were a year ago. As per my first “thing to watch” in the intro, older Gen Xers and Boomers are feeling a lot better than younger generations about their money going into the new year. The percentage of adults 55+ who expect to have more disposable income in the year ahead is up over 2X from this time last year. Admittedly, more people in the cohort expect to have less disposable income, but the ratio is far better than it was going into 2024. It’s also worth noting that sentiment varies significantly by party affiliation. No surprise there. Take a look at this study we did in partnership with ROAR Forward to see where 55+ Americans expect to spend more, or less, than they did before.
The optimism story is more complicated, however, when we don’t just talk about the economy. In our inaugural 2025 3 Things to Know, we found that over half of U.S. adults expect the coming year to be better than 2024 – without asking them “better how.” Gen Zs are the most optimistic age group, by far, while Boomers are more measured, which tells us it’s not primarily a question of money. Meanwhile, we saw yet another bump in interest around non-alcoholic beers and mocktails (seeing a pattern yet?) and learned that homemade or “upcycled” gifts were more prevalent than “experience” gifts, this past holiday season.
The focus of New Year’s resolutions shuffled a bit this year. Nearly two-thirds of U.S. adults planned to embark on some kind of New Year’s resolution this month, up seven percentage points from 2024. And, while only one-third will stick it out until December, that’s still a lot of people who will be adjusting their lifestyle in one way or another. When looking at general categories of resolutions, we found that food, diet, drinking, and smoking related resolutions fell compared to last year (although drinking-related resolutions surged among Gen Z), while fitness-related ones jumped. The big leap, however, was among people who are resolving to better manage their spending and finances. That group increased by nearly 50% over 2023 and 2024.
People spent somewhat more responsibly over the holidays, maybe. The picture of post-Christmas debt is coming into focus, and it’s mixed. The percentage of Americans who are “very concerned” about paying off their holiday bills fell compared to last year, while those who are “somewhat concerned” increased by more. The number of shoppers who used Buy Now, Pay Later services was relatively flat, but the people who used them are carrying much higher balances. Those with the biggest debt concerns say they’ll be cutting back on dining out and shifting more dollars to private-label brands to make up the difference. We’ll see.
As we’re all freezing our asses off here in the Midwest, trends in winter wear are bucking the economic headwinds. A Minnesota native, Tara thinks our current run of 20-degree days is balmy, while I’m completely miserable – hence the money I recently forked out for a top-of-the-line winter coat. I’m not alone, as Americans across all age groups list something other than price (ie. comfort and durability) as their primary motivator when choosing cold- weather outerwear. Brands matter, with Carhartt surging past The North Face in the number-one spot this year. Where people buy their cozy outdoor garb has continued to shift as well.
More awesomeness from the InsightStore™:
- 3 Things to Know from before Christmas: People were less jazzed about Christmas, interest in encrypted messaging apps is on the rise, and nobody reads marketing emails;
- Fewer holiday gifts are being returned;
- And more holiday gift cards are being used to pay for essentials.
The most popular questions to kick off the New Year:
Do you have any personal experiences where someone’s kindness significantly impacted your life?
Where do you think your state ranks in terms of quality of golf courses?
Do you generally prefer working out with or without weights?
Would you ever live in a tiny home?
Are you a fan of winter weather?
Answer Key: More than I can count; Top 5; With weights; Hell no, I’m claustrophobic; Double hell no.
Wishing you the happiest, healthiest, and most prosperous year ever.
JD
