07/18/2026: You seldom know when a last is a last

Our kids are both with us for three whole weeks.

It’s the first time we’ve all been together for more than a few days in almost two years. There’s a chance it may never happen again. You never know.

We moved Maddie out of her apartment in Ann Arbor last weekend, after an impromptu detour through Indiana, where she totaled her car driving to meet us after her last appearance in Footloose at the Wagon Wheel Theater. Fortunately, she escaped with only a couple airbag-induced bruises. Equally fortunately, a married couple of Good Samaritans witnessed the accident, stayed with her until the cops and EMTs arrived, then took her (and a car full of luggage) to their Sunday family gathering for three hours until we arrived. Readers of this email often give me crap for my over-the-top rosy view of humanity, but this is why. People are amazing.

Tomorrow, we head to Minneapolis, where I’ll knock off two days of business before making our annual sojourn to Siren, Wisconsin with my in-laws for five days of boating, firepits, corn-on-the-cob, and cribbage. Needless to say, I won’t be writing next weekend.

Then, we’ll be back in Pittsburgh for one more week before Maddie moves to New York to start her adult life. One of my best friends offered to host her for a month (see above: people are amazing) while she starts auditions (she scored an awesome agent by the way) and looks for longer-term living arrangements. Tara has been scouring Astoria, where, evidently, all the cool theater kids are lodging nowadays. But, man, are places hard to find. Don’t get me started on the cost. Yeesh.

Two weeks later, Noelle heads back to Case Western, and we’ll be back to empty nesting with our dogs. The ride never stops.

I didn’t realize the final time I read a book to one of our girls, had a drink with my dad, or played sports in the cul-de-sac with my friends. You seldom know when a last is a last. But I’ll enjoy this stretch like it is.

Here’s what we’re seeing:

Consumer confidence is on the upswing. Our Economic Sentiment Index had a healthy increase this week, reaching its second-highest peak in 11 months. It’s been somewhat lost because every other reading has been slightly down or flat, but you can’t deny the overall improvement we’ve seen since early May. This time around, four of our five primary metrics increased by more than a point, led by long-term optimism about the U.S. economy and personal finances. The only red number was employment outlook, no surprise following recent reports of slower hiring.

On cue, household financial health improved last month as well, which is generally a good sign for spending on services and entertainment. Our Consumer Financial Health Index rose for the third consecutive month in June, reaching levels we haven’t seen since last September. The big news is that Americans’ collective debt outlook brightened, somewhat unexpectedly given the continued reports of credit card defaults – although that might also explain why people are feeling dourer about their credit.

Those lessening debt worries could reverse for student loan recipients in the coming months. In our 3 Things to Know this week, we checked in on our student debt-tracking data on the eve of the federal SAVE plan coming to an end. Sixty-nine percent of debt holders are concerned about their ability to make payments, up from 56% in 2022. We also looked at how the ongoing Cyclosporiasis outbreak is impacting U.S. grocery shoppers (it is). Finally, we examined the priorities of current job seekers, who care less about long commutes and company culture – more about flexibility and long-term growth opportunities – than the average worker.

The macroeconomic headwinds could signal a strong year for back-to-school shopping. Half of U.S. school shoppers say they plan to spend more this year than they did a year ago, a sizable jump from the 42% who expected bigger school supply outlays in 2025. Even as events like Amazon Prime Day pulled B2S spending earlier for the deal-seeking crowd, two-thirds of shoppers will wait until the waning weeks of summer break to finish their buying. The link above will also take you to the sign-up form for our comprehensive back-to-school report, which more or less provides a roadmap for how we’ll be targeting shoppers for our advertiser clients. You’re welcome.

Halloween shoppers, on the other hand, get started earlier every year. I can’t believe I’m even thinking about Halloween right now, but here we are. Nearly one in four shoppers say they’ll start buying for the hallowed holiday in July or August, up from just 14% in 2024. For the first time ever, fewer than half of shoppers will wait until October. No surprise, these early shoppers are relying on online retailers, while the laggards will turn to big-box stores. Notably, early Halloween buyers are driven by nostalgia…and stress.