Well, there you have it.
If you’ve familiarized yourself with the exit polling data this week, it will come as no surprise that my family of college-educated and college-aspirant women have been grieving even worse than when my dad died ten years ago. All I can do is say I’m sorry.
My cold, data-informed assessment of why things happened the way they did is irrelevant. Right now, everyone is entitled to their own reflection on what it says and what it means—the more deeply personal that reflection, the more valid we should treat it. Sometimes, data is not the guiding light, especially coming from a privileged cis male.
Adding to an already heavy week, our company implemented a restructuring on Thursday. That’s soulless shorthand for saying we parted ways with several wonderful, talented, unsuspecting people who did nothing to deserve it. It’s enabling us to shift investments to higher-growth areas of our business, a decision on paper that made itself. None of that makes the collateral human damage any less heartbreaking – perhaps more so due to the stark reminder of how powerless we are against the harsh realities of capitalism. I hate it, even if I willingly signed up for it.
So, yeah, it’s hard not to feel an intense level of self-loathing at the moment. The world isn’t fair. Structural and anthropological advantages abound, with no signs of progress. We learned this week that bodily autonomy is more popular in Florida than either Donald Trump or Ron DeSantis, yet only one of those things lost. We’re apparently about to tell millions of people – who risked their lives escaping impoverished or war-torn countries, carried children on their shoulders through blazing deserts, and crawled through barbed wire – that they haven’t earned the same inalienable rights we have merely because we won a reproductive lottery on the right plot of land, and they didn’t. And now I have to convince Noelle that her dream of one day becoming President isn’t somehow futile. Is it?
Meanwhile, kind, hardworking, mission-driven people can lose a job they love in a flash, all for being in the wrong role at the wrong time. It sucks.
If you’re disaffected by all those things or celebrating because your side won, more power to you (emphasis on power). Please just treat others with grace and empathy. People are hurting, whether you can relate to it or not.
Sorry to darken your Saturday morning. I’m sure my spirits will be back to normal in no time.
Aren’t I lucky?
Here’s what we’re seeing:
Consumer confidence continued surging into the election, which I’m increasingly convinced was more of an effect than a cause. This is a useful moment to remind people that macroeconomic sentiment measures are forward-looking indicators, more so than an accurate assessment of people’s current financial views. Our Economic Sentiment Index climbed more than a full point in its latest reading, driven mostly by increased optimism for the longer-term (i.e. 6 months from now) U.S. economy. Note that these numbers came out before races were called, which means one of two things: 1) A lot of people sensed the momentum of the race and believed it was a good thing, or 2) They’re optimistic today but simultaneously still mad about the past.
Lending credence to theory #1 above – emotional well-being shifted dramatically in the weeks leading up to Election Day. Coincidentally, our latest monthly Emotional Well-Being Index was published this week, and it’s not a stretch to say that it may have foretold what was to come. The mood of Republicans spiked significantly throughout October while falling – albeit less sharply – among Democrats. It could explain all sorts of things, like the lower-than-expected turnout in some of America’s largest cities. It also raises another cause-and-effect question about the impact of public polls and prediction markets. Do they really measure public sentiment more than they influence it? You probably know my opinion on that by now.
As expected, the mood of America is even more bifurcated in the wake of the election. When asked about their emotional state late this week, the number one feeling expressed by U.S. adults is “nervous,” followed closely by “optimistic” and “stressed.” That pretty much sums it up. In other election post-mortems, we learned that the mix of mail-in, early, and election-day voting has become increasingly balanced. One place where Republicans and Democrats agree is their view that the Presidential election was “very important” to the future of the country. And both sides expect the election outcome to affect the way they spend, especially on groceries, travel, and investments. A reminder that we will be hosting an exclusive client-only webinar next Tuesday on how the election will affect consumer behavior, especially the holiday retail season, based on our latest post-Trump-win data. Sign up here if you haven’t.
The Federal Trade Commission is at least doing a few things most Americans support. In our 3 Things to Know this week, we looked at two current initiatives of the FTC and can infer that the majority of U.S. adults won’t want them to change under a new administration. Americans overwhelmingly support the government’s crusade to combat fake online reviews and product testimonials, particularly AI-generated ones. Even more popular is the FTC’s “click to cancel” rule, which requires businesses to gain consent for subscription renewals while making it much easier for consumers to bow out of services they signed up for. Older Americans love it the most. Lastly, we examined the growing impact of food recalls (like the Boar’s Head fiasco) on U.S. grocery shoppers.
Expect a monster holiday retail season for Walmart. Everything about the current economic and sociopolitical climate (more on this Tuesday) points to a rosy outlook for the folks in Bentonville this quarter. A premium on deal-seeking, the convenience of one-stop-shopping, and improved consumer confidence among Republicans all help to explain why Walmart shoppers expect to spend more this holiday season than last year. The Black Friday weekend should be particularly strong as consumers break free of their pre-election trepidation.
More awesomeness from the InsightStore:
- Extreme weather events don’t seem to be spurring people to relocate;
- On theme, our Consumer Financial Health Index also improved in October;
- Americans were completely burned out on political news by the end of campaign season.
The most popular questions this week:
How superstitious are you, if at all?
Do you typically prefer to act on inspiration quickly or let it simmer for a while?
How much do you enjoy cooking Thanksgiving dinner each year?
Do you prefer all-inclusive resorts or a la carte vacations when traveling with your family?
How interested are you in car camping?
Answer Key: More than I probably realize; The former, although I should probably do more of the latter; It’s literally one of my favorite things in the world; Never been to an all-inclusive resort; I can’t think of anything I’m less interested in.
Hoping you’re well.
JD
PS–If you’re looking for highly talented engineers, IT professionals, tech product developers, or content creators, please let me know. I have a great list of candidates for you.
