Sometimes everybody’s feelings are valid, even when they’re directly at odds.
Case in point, it’s undeniable that decades of globalization have formed the U.S. economy into the most prosperous in human history. It’s equally true that large swaths of our country and its people have been completely gutted by it.
Anyone who’s ever taken a college econ class or subscribed to the Financial Times will tell you Trump’s tariff gambit is asinine. We’re enjoying an unprecedented period of expansion. We navigated post-COVID global inflation better than everyone. Job numbers are stellar. The dollar was never stronger. Spend five minutes traveling overseas, and you’ll see how good we have it.
Nobody in Hyndman, Pennsylvania – the small rural town near our cabin, where my mom grew up – gives a shit.
The population there has shrunk by half in the past 40 years. The local K-12 shuttered a decade ago, replaced by a charter school that closed this spring. The few remaining jobs are at the prison, the utility companies, and a handful of machine shops – all 30 miles away. The life expectancy is roughly 8 years shorter than in our rich Pittsburgh suburb.
But the economy is rocking! Why don’t they just go to community college, move to the city, and learn to code?
Because, for lots of people, way of life is more important than money, so long as you have just enough of the latter to preserve the former. And that’s where it’s all fallen apart. When there isn’t sufficient opportunity to keep your kids from fleeing or to attract new people to support your school, your tax base, or your main street, everything else crumbles.
The people of Hyndman (pronounced with a hard ‘I’) cherish their way of life. They live minutes from their parents, their adult kids, and grandkids. They hunt and fish and ride their ATVs to the local bar without touching a paved road. They fix their own cars, build their own decks, and remodel their own bathrooms. They work until it’s their turn to retire, then peacefully watch the next generation do the same.
They also don’t care about your way of life until you look down your nose at theirs or, worse, until they’re made to believe yours is a threat to theirs. The first sin is perpetrated by elites on the left for moral and intellectual superiority. The second, by those on the right, for political gain and TV ratings.
You could argue that the people in Hyndman who support Trump’s economic policies, or Trump broadly (i.e. nearly all of them), are simply undereducated and uncultured – the same root cause of most MAGA stereotypes, like xenophobia, climate change denial, or vaccine skepticism. Let’s say you’re right.
Whose fault is that? They didn’t want their school to close. You couldn’t even get a cellphone signal or high-speed internet in town until a couple of years ago. Parades of politicians and empty promises from both sides have come and gone. They feel betrayed by a system that overlooked them, partly because they were too proud to complain about it. They don’t want anything handed to them. They just don’t want it handed to anyone else at their expense.
I can tell you with supreme confidence that Trump’s efforts to blow up the global economic order will likely end in catastrophe, that the idea of countless high-paying manufacturing jobs magically reappearing is a fantasy. But am I 100% certain? No, only 99%.
It’s a stupid risk to take. Easy for me to say. My life’s been almost entirely up and to the right.
For millions of people in hundreds of towns like Hyndman across the country, a 1% chance that things will get better is worth a shot. Nothing else has worked for them.
And every time someone like me says we know better, every time we hyperventilate about the wonders of our glorious free-trade economy without acknowledging the communities left in its wake, their political resolve only deepens. Remember that.
Because that’s why we are where we are.
Here’s what we’re seeing:
Gray-hairs are already hedging against Social Security cuts. Although the President has assured voters he will protect Social Security, operational cuts at the agency – and the fact that he seems to change his mind a lot – have led many older Americans to begin preparing for the worst. In our 3 Things to Know this week, we learned that nearly 1 in 3 adults aged 45+ are rethinking their investment strategy and/or retirement timeline due to their uncertainty around Social Security. We also examined the huge jump in consumers who say they’re buying private-label brands and how gamers will delay their console or game purchase if/when tariffs hit.
At the other end of the age spectrum, Gen Z needs to get smarter about money. Today, 25% of Americans between the ages of 18 and 29 consider themselves “very financially literate,” down from 36% in 2023. To be fair, Millennials likewise feel far less financially literate than they did two years ago too. But this study is about Gen Z so just ignore that for now. They do seem to think they’re getting better at managing their finances – although they always seem to get worse around Christmas. Most troubling, however, is that after a few years of steady improvement, their commitment to saving for retirement is falling off.
America’s need for weed has hit a plateau. In our latest look at U.S. cannabis consumption, a few noteworthy trends emerged. First, while daily weed usage has continued to climb a percentage point or two each year, casual usage has actually declined. The number of 21+ adults who say they never partake has climbed 5 points since 2023. Among those who do like to get high, the popularity of edibles is rising steadily, fast approaching traditional smoking as the preferred method. In 2020, they were separated by 28 points. Today, it’s just 6. The fact that weed users over-index as fitness-minded helps to explain the trend. Also interesting is that public support for full recreational legalization is waning.
We’ve grown numb to shrinkflation. Retailers’ and CPG companies’ efforts to improve margins by downsizing packaging during the 2022-2023 inflation spike worked. Americans grew accustomed to smaller unit sizes at the same price, so much so that they don’t even care anymore. They’re more likely to complain now about things being lower quality or available with fewer features. For those who do lament the shrinkflation trend, they take a variety of different actions, from switching brands to abandoning the product altogether. Interestingly, those tactics vary by party affiliation, with Democrats remaining the most brand loyal.
We’re divided on location sharing. Tara and I were laggards when it came to sharing our respective locations on our phones. The idea kind of creeped us out – until we realized it’s just way more convenient logistically. We even resisted tracking our kids until about a year ago, respecting their independence, until they literally asked us to. Today, two in five U.S. adults say they share their location with their spouse or loved ones. People overwhelmingly support parents tracking their kids (69% to 10%). There’s also a very high correlation between people who share their location with others and people who describe themselves as lonely. I guess that’s one solution.
More awesomeness from the InsightStore™:
- Easter celebrations might be down this year, but Reese’s Peanut Butter Cups still dominate.
The most popular questions this week:
Do you believe two-ingredient cocktails can be great?
Do you think it’s okay to date someone whose political views are very different from your own?
Do you support or oppose the increasing privatization of space travel?
Do you typically get emotional at weddings?
Would you say you have a sophisticated palate when it comes to food?
Answer Key: Yes, but not as great as a one-ingredient cocktail; Sure, but good luck; Yeah, with sufficient regulation; Depends; I’d like to think so.
Hoping you’re well,
JD
