Well, our next phase is locked and loaded.
After months of paperwork, travel, and handwringing – following years of hard work and planning – Noelle committed to Case Western for the fall. She had a few highly contrasted options, so I was never 100% sure what she’d choose. Like a lot of things in our family, I kept my opinions to myself, but it’s exactly what I was hoping for.
Case is a perfect fit for her. Not too big, not too small. She’s leaning toward stats and economics, which obviously warms my heart, and their program is stellar. And now I have an excuse to frequent Cleveland’s awesome West Side Market and the Rock & Roll Hall of Fame Museum…and to mercilessly heckle Browns fans.
Regardless of where she landed, I’m just happy she gets to spend the next four years in a college bubble. I miss that part. And there wasn’t nearly as much for kids to hide from in 1994.
Maddie, meanwhile, is nearing the end of her bubble. With her junior year wrapping up, she’s already scouting New York apartments to chase her Broadway dream when she graduates. Ironically, she may not spend much time there.
National tours are the only thing in the musical theater industry making any money. Broadway theaters are struggling. Regional companies have been shuttering left and right since COVID, exacerbated by the proliferation of national tours crowding them out. It’s hard to know what kind of career Maddie is walking into.
I have even less of a clue how things will look for Noelle four years from now. Likely, she’ll go to grad school, meaning a couple more years until she dives into professional life.
Then, who knows?
Things are so berserk right now, nobody can even predict what the world will be like in 60 days, let alone 2031. Even if you don’t have a sociopolitical, economic, environmental, or epidemiological catastrophe on your bingo card, AI might render half (or more) of today’s jobs obsolete in six years. Will we even need economists?
And what will the dating and marriage prospects be? The current trajectory of young men in America is troubling, to put it gently. Sure, it might increase Noelle’s velocity (and earnings) with less competition on the corporate ladder. But will she have to do it alone?
Fortunately, I’m a chronic optimist. Few things annoy Tara more than my incessant habit of responding to every challenge in our house with, “It’ll be fine.”
But some small part of me definitely worries about the future.
At least Noelle can have fun for a few years before it’s her problem.
Here’s what we’re seeing:
Consumer confidence hasn’t found its bottom yet. Our Economic Sentiment Index continued its slide, as declines accelerated in the wake of “Liberation Day,” aptly named in that it liberated people from tons of their savings. Concerns about personal finances fell especially steeply – a whopping almost-4-points – reflecting consumers’ worries about tariff costs hitting their household expenses. Long-term outlook for the economy also slid more than a full point. Every metric in the index was in the red. I’m squinting hard to find silver linings, to no avail.
The outlook for summer travel doesn’t look great. Over half of typical summer travelers report at least some kind of adjustments to their plans this year, from downsizing their trips (in cost and length) to cancelling altogether. As would be expected, the numbers are highly correlated with household income; however, even higher-strata travelers aren’t unscathed by the economic uncertainty. Among those still planning to hit the road (or skies), nearly half expect to take on some form of debt to pay for it.
The economic fun doesn’t end there. We uncovered a few other disheartening signs in our 3 Things to Know this week, running the gambit from savings to tax refunds to tipping. Over 1 in 4 U.S. adults report they or someone in their household has made hardship withdrawals from their 401 (k) or other restricted savings in the past year – or plan to. That figure jumps to 39% among lower-income households. Moreover, 57% of Americans receiving a tax refund this year plan to use the proceeds to replenish savings or pay down debt, while intent to spend on things like travel or home improvement declines. Lastly, although they’ve bounced back slightly over the past year, average tipping rates among consumers have fallen compared to 2023.
In actual fun news, rec sports among middle-aged and older Americans is on the rise. The number of U.S. adults who are very or somewhat likely to participate in a recreational sports league this summer is up 25% compared to 2023 – perhaps filling the void of those deferred vacation plans. The biggest increases are happening among people aged 30-54. We didn’t get into it, but judging by all the courts being built in our neighborhood, pickleball has something to do with it. Notably, the motivations of these sports enthusiasts have also shifted, with stress relief and relaxation climbing, while health and fitness have fallen.
Gen Z nostalgia is driving a resurgence of old-school tech. In their ongoing quest to return to simpler times (before they were born) America’s young adults are leading another new trend of old trends – not unlike their throwback affinities for grunge rock, thrift stores, and Friends. Gen Z is snapping up so-called “dumb devices,” from stereos and CDs to MP3 players, cameras, and even flip-phones in surprising numbers. It couldn’t come at a better time, as the cost of smart tech might soon become more prohibitive. No word yet on when Beanie Babies, jelly sandals, and hypercolor shirts will be making their comeback.
One more bit of awesomeness from the InsightStore:
- Five quite surprising insights about Liquid Death drinkers.
The most popular questions this week:
Have you ever been a victim of online harassment?
Do you use emojis in your messaging?
How often do you feel stressed in your daily life?
Do you tend to be more directly confrontational or conflict avoidant?
