Holiday Shopping Sprees Are Just Getting Started

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Hold your horses. Early forecasts surrounding holiday spending this year may have come too soon, we’ve found. Take a look:

People who expect to spend more money this holiday season has increased.

In October, only 16% of adults said they would spend more this holiday season over last. As of this month, that number has climbed to 21%.

There are a few possible reasons for this. Qualitatively, shoppers may just have a hard time sticking to budget, which we saw last year as well. It’s easy to say that you’re going to spend less money early in the season, but when the time for holiday shopping starts to come around, often times your expected budget goes out the window. It happens to the best of us.  

Another reason, from a more quantitative perspective, may surround economic sentiment. Our Economic Sentiment Index (ESI) tracks, as the name implies, economic sentiment around the U.S. Take a look at the recent uptick:

Economic sentiment has risen steadily over the past month.

According to the HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (ESI), consumer confidence reached its highest level since January of last year, increasing to 52.4.

More specifically, four out of the five indicators factored into the index rose as well.

4 out of the 5 factors in CivicScience's Economic Sentiment Index have risen.

So, maybe this increase in intended holiday spending doesn’t just stem from a lack of thoughtful planning, but from increased economic confidence. And what does that mean?

Well, both holiday retailers and gift recipients just might be in luck this season.

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