The Gist: 20% of US adults are likely to try Prime Wardrobe, the new Amazon Prime service that allows members to try on clothing, shoes, and accessories for free. Of that group, 6% would sign up for Prime specifically with this fashion subscription box model in mind.

Ah, Amazon. Everyone’s favorite (or maybe not) model for e-commerce. Following the big news of the Whole Foods acquisition, Amazon kept its foot on the accelerator with its announced launch of Prime Wardrobe, a try-it-on-for-free subscription box model for clothing, shoes, and accessories. This is a trend that we can safely say hasn’t really flooded the market yet, but is definitely up and coming. Tracking a question about these try-before-you-buy services, we have seen the number of people who say online styling services are helpful double since 2015. Amazon sure did pounce on this emerging trend – and our data show Amazon can thrive from it.

Knowing this, here’s the question we launched upon hearing the news about Prime Wardrobe:

You’ll see that 20% of US adults are very likely to try Prime Wardrobe. Of that group, 6% don’t even have Prime yet but would consider signing up because of this offering. That’s pretty big.

This 20% figure is consistent with our other early adopter data for VR, Smart home automation, smart watches, and many other emerging tech products – all of which fall in a consistent 10-20% range. A big question that remains to be seen is, can Amazon’s subscription model break through the 20%? Speaking of 20%, Amazon will offer incentives to keep more of what you get in your box – with up to 20% off your order. This offering might help them break through that early adopter threshold.

Moreover, Amazon’s relationships (and leverage) with retailers and others could allow it to broadly expand its brand selection over time. This will allow the company to gain a competitive advantage over existing fashion subscription box services like Stitchfix, Frank and Oak and Trunkclub that won’t have Amazon’s commercial reach.

And who are the people most likely to try Amazon’s new offering? Those who already have Prime and say they are very likely to try this out are 44% male and 56% female. Those who don’t have Prime but may become a member because of this are 69% female.

Time will tell if Amazon can vanquish the earlier entrants in the subscription box market – would anyone be surprised? The bigger question mark is whether Amazon can push this until now ‘niche’ service category into the mainstream.