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The impact of looming tariffs and recession concerns on U.S. consumers is beginning to take shape. The outlook for certain spending categories is especially bleak, while others appear to be protected, as Americans make their priorities – and strategies – increasingly clear. In our recent webinar, presented by CivicScience CEO and Founder John Dick, we explored fresh data on consumer sentiment, shifting consumer behavior, its impact on current and future spending, and what it means for brands.
Here’s a glimpse at the key Economic & Consumer Sentiment findings from the webinar — learn how you can access an exclusive clip from the presentation and an insight tailored to your business. Discover what you missed by clicking here.
1. Shifts in the three U.S. economies amid tariffs
Three distinct narratives emerge when examining the CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index – the Republican view, the Democratic view, and that of political Independents. Each group tends to move in different directions, often aligned with which party holds the White House. Notably, however, over the past six weeks, even Republican consumer confidence has ticked downward slightly, following a sharp climb in the aftermath of President Trump’s election and inauguration. Still, despite this recent dip, a wide gap remains between confidence levels among Republicans and Democrats.
The trajectory of political independents, however, remains a focal point. Their sentiment typically hovers near the overall average, but when it deviates—either above or below—it can serve as a bellwether for broader economic momentum. This “green line” is one of the most telling indicators we track to anticipate where consumer sentiment may be heading next.
Weigh in: How concerned are you about a future US economic recession?
2. Wellbeing is a key indicator
Americans’ emotional well-being may be starting to stabilize thanks to warmer weather and the approaching summer, but overall mood remains low, and that matters for spending. When people feel anxious or unhappy, they cut back, spend less time outside the home, and become much more likely to abandon long-standing brand loyalties, even in typically stable categories like banking. A lift in mood, on the other hand, brings with it a rise in discretionary spending, entertainment outings, and more predictable behavior.
Use this Data: CivicScience clients use real-time data like this to monitor how specific segments are feeling and how it may impact their strategies for customer retention and acquisition.
3. Not a time to sit on the sidelines
Amid continued tariff uncertainty, more consumers—especially middle-income, tech-savvy Millennials—are speeding up purchases in categories like electronics and home tech to get ahead of potential price hikes. This behavior underscores the urgency for brands to identify and engage customers who are in a “buy now” mindset, capturing spending while it’s happening rather than waiting on the sidelines.
Join the conversation: Do you think bold action is necessary to address the current economic situation in the US?
In a volatile environment where consumer emotions and behaviors shift quickly, brands that can pivot fast and personalize outreach will win. Now isn’t the time for broad strokes. Winning share now requires reading between the lines and moving with consumers, not just marketing at them. That’s why we deliver not just insight, but foresight—so you can see what’s next, shift strategies in real time, and future-proof your business against uncertainty.
This webinar session is the first in our new series focused on uncertainty. Don’t want to miss out on our next edition in the webinar series? See the schedule by clicking here.
