The roses smell great.

If you live in or around Appalachia – or anywhere with unseasonably sunny weather and deciduous trees – the past two weeks have been historically stunning. It’s like living in a Monet.

I’m not sure how long it was happening before I noticed, but I know exactly when I did. I was driving through a park near our neighborhood on Monday evening. It had been a particularly stressful, frantic day, and I was running late. Murphy’s Law, I was slogging behind a line of slow-moving cars, with fast-rising blood pressure. As I hit a four-way stop sign, the view hit me. The pristine blue sky, golden-hour sunshine, and an array of vivid red, orange, and yellow foliage stopped me in my tracks. The car behind me had to beep. For once, it wasn’t because I stole a quick glance at my phone. I know. Tsk, tsk. 

That one momentary autumn revelation aside, I wish I was more present. Tara and the girls have just accepted – not without frequent ribbing – that I’m a space cadet. I drop into the middle of conversations they’ve been having right around me. I frequently forget stories (or to-do items) I’m told. Nearly always, it’s because I’m preoccupied with my job.

Now for the quadrennial tradition of asking whether we’re better or worse off than we were four years ago. It’s a tough question this time. Literally four years ago, we were still deep in lockdown, thousands of our fellow citizens were dying by the day, and we couldn’t hug anyone outside our immediate bubble. Still, the silver linings were aplenty. We had oodles of quality time with our kids, at the very age when they would’ve otherwise begun separating. We spent weeks on end at our cabin. Life slowed down. But I didn’t realize how special it was until much later.

None of that has anything to do with who I’m voting for. It’s a non-sequitur.

My point is that we – or at least I – often lose sight of the beautiful things right in front of us, especially when times are darkest. The news amplifies the ugly. Crisis and controversy are often fodder for more interesting conversation. Career pressures keep our eyes glued to the prize. Whether it’s the right prize is a debate for another day. But it certainly blinds our periphery. 

Anyway, I need to pay more attention to the roses. 

Who knows how many other precious moments I’m missing? 

Here’s what we’re seeing:

Consumer confidence is surging ahead of the election. Our Economic Sentiment Index reached its highest point in over a year this week, boosted by a massive jump in optimism for the job market. There was a time when stats like this were a great sign for the incumbent party, but now I’m not sure. Confidence increased most among Republicans, perhaps because they’re sensing the momentum (or reading about it in the news) for their guy. In any case, it bodes well for spending as Black Friday is just a month away – as long as it continues.

On that note, Black Friday should be big this year. The percentage of U.S. adults who say they plan to shop over Thanksgiving weekend and those who plan to shop Black Friday specifically are both up 6 points over this time last year. It tracks with everything we’ve been seeing, going back to the summer when fewer people used Amazon Prime Day to get an early jump on Christmas. The election has people delaying their holiday shopping too. All of that points to a rush of gift-buying over the last 6 weeks of the season. While nearly half of those expected BF shoppers plan to do the majority of their spending online, two-thirds plan to visit a mall at least once.

Buy Now, Pay Later services may have peaked last year. Americans seem to have hit their collective credit limits going into the holiday retail season, as fewer expect to use digital layaway tools like Affirm or Afterpay to cover their expenses. Overall, the percentage of U.S. adults who plan to take on any debt to buy gifts this year is remarkably consistent with 2023 and 2022. Per usual, younger consumers are the most likely to finance their holiday cheer. And a lot of people who plan to go into debt this year will do it for travel. That’s a good reason. 

Men don’t take care of themselves. In our 3 Things to Know this week, we found that nearly one-third of men over the age of 45 have never had any kind of cancer screening. The number drops to barely over 10% among (much smarter) women. In other news, the percentage of U.S. holiday celebrators who want gift cards in their stockings has climbed for the second straight year. Finally, over one-third of working-age Americans say they’re at least somewhat likely to apply for a seasonal job this holiday season. Naturally, that group skews lower income, but not as much as you might expect.   

Gen Z loves to snack, and so do I. Unfortunately, I don’t have the metabolism of an 18- to 24-year-old anymore, so I moderate most of the time and feel bad about myself the other times. But these kids are justifiably shameless about it. While they under-index compared to other age groups when it comes to eating meals at fast-food restaurants, they’re the most likely generation to hit QSRs for morning, afternoon, or evening snacks. Another interesting finding in this study is that, after falling for a couple of years during COVID, Gen Z’s taste for salty snacks has been rebounding, while healthy snacks are falling. Also, they love Dairy Queen. 

More awesomeness from the InsightStore™:

The most popular questions this week:

Do you find it easy or difficult to make new friends as an adult?

Do you know any sign language?

Do you tend to take criticism well or poorly?

How do you feel about magic tricks?

Is steeper or shallower better for your golf game?

Answer Key: Easy; Only when our kids were babies; I love it; They drive me crazy; Trick question: It depends on the shot.

Hoping you’re well.