November is full of personal landmarks. 

This weekend marks nine years since I started writing this thing. In two weeks, I’ll turn 50. Before that, I have one of those violative medical procedures men are supposed to get at this age, then a quick weekend getaway/bender with a best friend for his 50th, followed by our Q4 board meeting in New York.

Nine years of weekly public journaling, fifty years of breathing, and ten months into a pivotal year for our business is cause for a lot of reflection, all at once. 

Am I where I expected to be? 

Career-wise, no. I became an entrepreneur by accident. I also had a C-minus in high school trigonometry and avoided math like sobriety in college. Somehow, I’m leading a data business, very much the dumbest guy in most rooms.

Looking back to where it started, CivicScience is mostly like I envisioned it – notwithstanding the advertising business I never saw coming – but it’s taken a decade longer to get here than I planned. Even in this fiscal year, when we’ll likely double revenue, there were plenty of unmet expectations. 

Life at the half-century mark isn’t what I expected, only because I didn’t know what to expect. All I do know is that I couldn’t have dreamt it much better. I’m still madly in love with my wife, infinitely proud of my kids, surrounded by a priceless cadre of friends, healthy with impeccable hair, and passionate about the job I get to do every day. Grateful is an understatement.  

Are there things I would’ve done differently? Maybe, but I’ve already thought about all that. Among my favorite mottos are: “Stop saying ‘should have,’ and start saying ‘next time,’” and “Only make new mistakes today.” In life, as in business, there’s value in reflecting on errors of the past, only insofar as it helps us avoid them going forward.

As for the ninth anniversary of this weekly missive, that might be the most unexpected thing of all. If you had told me in November of 2016 that I would eventually write over 420 of these things, I would’ve taken your car keys away. The blessings it has bestowed – personally and professionally – would’ve been even harder to imagine. 

Thanks for joining the ride. 

Here’s what we’re seeing:  

Trust in the media is improving, ever so slightly, thanks to younger people. After years of precipitous decline, the percentage of Americans who say they trust the media – even somewhat – climbed from 31% to 34% over the past year. The improvement appears to be driven by Gen Z, perhaps because they aren’t as jaded or maybe they’re better at discerning between professional journalism and the alternative. Notably, local TV news is the source consumers trust the most, and that gap is widening. Broadcast network news and newspapers (local and national) have both slipped below social media. Yikes.  

Nearly a third of low-income Americans expect the government shutdown to impact their grocery spending. In our 3 Things to Know this week, we learned that a broad cross-section (62%) of U.S. adults are bracing for the prolonged shutdown to have at least a minimal impact on their trips to the grocery store. Naturally, the numbers are even worse among SNAP-reliant lower-income groups. We also looked at changing preferences for credit card reward programs and the large percentage of people over 35 who’ve never had any kind of cancer screening (like me, but soon to not be me). 

You can predict U.S. travel rates based on our collective emotional well-being. Our research team uncovered a fascinating – if intuitive – correlation between Americans’ overall mood and their likelihood to hit the road (or skies). Among the metrics comprising our Emotional Well-Being Index, rates of “excitement” are most predictive of travel intent. Interestingly, though, high rates of negative emotions, such as stress and worry are also leading indicators at a consistent one-month lag – proving the role travel plays in self-care today. It all paints a picture of how and when to reach potential travelers based on their current state of mind. 

The wine industry could use a solid holiday season. Battered and bruised over the past few years, wine retailers (and most alcohol categories, honestly) haven’t had much to cheer about. Our latest data on wine-buying, however, shows a glimmer of hope heading into the holidays. Seventy-two percent of legal-age drinkers plan to purchase wine within the next three months. And, while holiday parties are a big reason why, 45% of wine-buyers are planning to drink it at home. Per usual, reds are far more popular than whites – though the numbers are pretty close when served at holiday meals (Turkey = white wine). I also thought it was noteworthy how prominently recommendations from friends play in discovering new wines. 

We need to save the performing arts in America before it’s too late. Lost among all the other crises dominating the headlines these days is the tragedy befalling regional theaters, ballets, symphonies, and operas across the country. Generations-old arts organizations have been shuttering by the week since the pandemic, thanks to the poisonous cocktail of an aging population, inflation, education policy, and myriad other factors. I was joined on our podcast this week by Chantell Ghosh, the dynamic Chief Marketing Officer of the Miami City Ballet, to talk about the existential threat facing the performing arts and the keys to saving them. You need to listen to it. 

More awesomeness from the InsightStore™:

  • People are planning smaller gatherings this year, and other pre-Thanksgiving factoids;
  • If you’re celebrating Cybersecurity Awareness Month, you should know that Americans are increasingly concerned about their data being compromised.  

The most popular questions this week:

Do you consider deep-dish pizza to be “real” pizza?

Have you ever rescued a wild animal before?

How likely is it that you’ll dine at a restaurant on Thanksgiving?

Do you personally identify as a strong advocate of free speech?

Do you personally believe in the healing power of pets?

Answer Key: Absolutely, I’m not a pizza purist; Yeah, multiple birds and a deer; Less likely than me cooking dinner on Mars; Yes; 100%.

Hoping you’re well.

JD

PS- I’m skipping next week (see above)        


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In case you’re wondering, I write this informal email to CivicScience clients, friends, and other VIPs every Saturday morning. If you’re getting this, you’re either one of those people or were referred to me by one of them. I always love your comments and feedback.